{"status":"success","data":{"title":"Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?","submission":{"No":0.22,"Yes":0.78},"outcomes":["Yes","No"],"created_at":1788190249259.11,"model_name":"openrouter/anthropic/claude-opus-5","research":{"queries":[],"rationale":"","sources":[{"title":"Research synthesis: 2026 Russian legislative election September 20 parties registered Duma","url":"","note":"Synthesis establishing the ballot: 11 registered federal lists (United Russia, CPRF, LDPR, New People, SRZP, Yabloko, Party of Pensioners, Communists of Russia, Rodina, Party of Direct Democracy, Greens), registered 30 July 2026; voting 18–20 Sept, main day 20 Sept; lottery 5 Aug put UR first on ballot. Also: voting in occupied Ukrainian territories with 11 single-member districts; e-voting in 33 regions. Field narrowed vs 2021 (15→11 lists). Settles the \"who is on the ballot\" part; corroborated by RG/Kommersant/Meduza results below."},{"title":"Research synthesis: 2021 Russian legislative election United Russia regions where Communist Party ca","url":"","note":"Synthesis: in 2021 UR finished SECOND on the party list in at least four federal subjects — Yakutia (KPRF 35.15% vs UR 33.22%, margin ~1.9pp), Khabarovsk Krai (KPRF 26.51% vs UR 24.51%, ~2pp), Mari El (KPRF 36.3% vs UR 33.4%, ~2.9pp), Nenets AO. Notes 2016 by contrast: UR carried every region. Conflicts with Meduza (S39) which also names Komi and Ulyanovsk — so the true 2021 count may be larger than four. Load-bearing for base rate: recent precedent that UR CAN lose regions."},{"title":"Research synthesis: Единая Россия проиграла КПРФ Коми Ульяновская область выборы Госдума 2021 итоги ","url":"","note":"Settles the 2021 count definitively: UR lost the party-list vote in EXACTLY FOUR federal subjects — Yakutia (KPRF 35.15 vs UR 33.22), Mari El (36.3 vs 33.4), Khabarovsk Krai (26.51 vs 24.5), Nenets AO (KPRF 31.98). Komi (UR 29.44 vs 26.88) and Ulyanovsk (UR 39.3 vs 33.14) were preliminary-night reports only; UR held first place on 100% protocols. Also key: Liberal Mission Foundation final report says KPRF finished a NARROW second in 12 further regions. That's the crucial base-rate structure: 4 losses + 12 near-misses out of ~85 in 2021."},{"title":"Research synthesis: выборы Госдума 2026 89 субъектов регионы ДНР ЛНР Запорожская Херсонская голосова","url":"","note":"Settles the denominator: voting in all 89 federal subjects, with DNR, LNR, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts participating in a Duma election for the first time (7 single-member districts among them; 3.59m voters claimed). So ~89 separately-reported regional party-list results, including 4 annexed territories that will almost certainly return implausibly high UR shares — this structurally HELPS \"Yes\" relative to 2021's 85 subjects. Also confirms 11 registered federal lists, 3133 list candidates, DEG in 32–33 regions, and no results yet as of 31 Aug 2026. Reliable (aggregates RIA/CEC/Vedomosti/K"},{"title":"Research synthesis: выборы Госдума 2011 регионы где Единая Россия проиграла КПРФ второе место список","url":"","note":"Settles 2011: officially UR finished FIRST in all 83 federal subjects, range 29.04% (Yaroslavl) to 99.48% (Chechnya) — despite only 49.32% nationally. Closest call: Kostroma oblast UR 30.7% vs KPRF 28.85% (<2pp). KPRF beat UR only at city level (Irkutsk, Bratsk, Angarsk etc.). Wikipedia/CEC-backed. So the base rate is not monotonic in UR's national share: 2011 (49.3% national) = 0 regional losses, 2021 (49.8% national) = 4 losses — the difference is regime management/protest concentration, not the topline."}]},"published":true,"view_count":21,"has_replay":true,"seeded":true}}