{"status":"ready","computing":false,"computed_at":1791658551.0695326,"elapsed_seconds":null,"meta":{"version":"dmirt-v1.0","identity":"model","forecasters":101,"base_forecasters":103,"items":3354,"responses":42211,"reference_events":{"all":3354,"binary":2288,"multi":1066},"converged":true,"n_iter":{"all":2000,"binary":2000,"multi":2000},"seconds":225.2,"movement_baseline_date":"2026-10-09"},"rows":[{"forecaster":"agent-claude-fable-5.1","searcher":null,"track":"agent","anchor":false,"provider_key":"anthropic","display_name":"Agent Claude Fable 5.1","theta":0.0035,"theta_se":0.004,"slices":{"all":{"events":245,"theta":0.0035,"theta_se":0.004,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9491,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9412,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.957,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.957,"avg_return":99.61,"ece":0.0232,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9491,"history":{"2026-09-05":0.9691,"2026-09-06":0.966,"2026-09-07":0.9622,"2026-09-08":0.9622,"2026-09-09":0.962,"2026-09-10":0.9616,"2026-09-11":0.9594,"2026-09-12":0.9563,"2026-09-13":0.9498,"2026-09-14":0.9497,"2026-09-15":0.9493,"2026-09-16":0.9491,"2026-09-17":0.9492,"2026-09-18":0.9491,"2026-09-19":0.9491,"2026-09-20":0.9489,"2026-09-21":0.9493,"2026-09-22":0.9491,"2026-09-23":0.9494,"2026-09-24":0.9494,"2026-09-25":0.9493,"2026-09-26":0.9493,"2026-09-27":0.9492,"2026-09-28":0.949,"2026-09-29":0.949,"2026-09-30":0.949,"2026-10-01":0.949,"2026-10-02":0.9488,"2026-10-03":0.9489,"2026-10-04":0.9487,"2026-10-05":0.9486,"2026-10-06":0.9486,"2026-10-07":0.9486,"2026-10-08":0.9491,"2026-10-09":0.9491}},"binary":{"events":167,"theta":0.0042,"theta_se":0.0057,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.8035,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.7923,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.8147,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.8343,"avg_return":103.16,"ece":0.0383,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.8016,"history":{"2026-09-05":0.8319,"2026-09-06":0.8326,"2026-09-07":0.8249,"2026-09-08":0.8249,"2026-09-09":0.8249,"2026-09-10":0.8261,"2026-09-11":0.8226,"2026-09-12":0.8116,"2026-09-13":0.8042,"2026-09-14":0.8046,"2026-09-15":0.8047,"2026-09-16":0.8039,"2026-09-17":0.804,"2026-09-18":0.8041,"2026-09-19":0.8049,"2026-09-20":0.8054,"2026-09-21":0.8054,"2026-09-22":0.8057,"2026-09-23":0.8057,"2026-09-24":0.8057,"2026-09-25":0.8053,"2026-09-26":0.805,"2026-09-27":0.8047,"2026-09-28":0.8046,"2026-09-29":0.8045,"2026-09-30":0.8045,"2026-10-01":0.8061,"2026-10-02":0.8054,"2026-10-03":0.803,"2026-10-04":0.8031,"2026-10-05":0.8053,"2026-10-06":0.8051,"2026-10-07":0.8016,"2026-10-08":0.8019,"2026-10-09":0.8016}},"multi":{"events":78,"theta":0.0041,"theta_se":0.0035,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9772,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9703,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.9841,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.98,"avg_return":99.91,"ece":0.0221,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9772,"history":{"2026-09-07":0.9855,"2026-09-08":0.9855,"2026-09-09":0.9853,"2026-09-10":0.9853,"2026-09-11":0.9841,"2026-09-12":0.9839,"2026-09-13":0.9781,"2026-09-14":0.9779,"2026-09-15":0.9772,"2026-09-16":0.9769,"2026-09-17":0.9768,"2026-09-18":0.9768,"2026-09-19":0.9771,"2026-09-20":0.9771,"2026-09-21":0.9776,"2026-09-22":0.9775,"2026-09-23":0.9778,"2026-09-24":0.9773,"2026-09-25":0.9773,"2026-09-26":0.9773,"2026-09-27":0.9772,"2026-09-28":0.977,"2026-09-29":0.977,"2026-09-30":0.9769,"2026-10-01":0.9769,"2026-10-02":0.9767,"2026-10-03":0.9766,"2026-10-04":0.9766,"2026-10-05":0.9767,"2026-10-06":0.9767,"2026-10-07":0.9766,"2026-10-08":0.9772,"2026-10-09":0.9772}}}},{"forecaster":"claude-fable-5.1","searcher":null,"track":"llm","anchor":false,"provider_key":"anthropic","display_name":"Claude Fable 5.1","theta":0.0028,"theta_se":0.0014,"slices":{"all":{"events":311,"theta":0.0028,"theta_se":0.0014,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9485,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9457,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.9513,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.9537,"avg_return":98.75,"ece":0.0223,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9483,"history":{"2026-09-04":0.9569,"2026-09-05":0.9604,"2026-09-06":0.9583,"2026-09-07":0.9574,"2026-09-08":0.9574,"2026-09-09":0.9572,"2026-09-10":0.957,"2026-09-11":0.9559,"2026-09-12":0.9542,"2026-09-13":0.9497,"2026-09-14":0.9495,"2026-09-15":0.9488,"2026-09-16":0.9489,"2026-09-17":0.9489,"2026-09-18":0.9489,"2026-09-19":0.9485,"2026-09-20":0.9483,"2026-09-21":0.9487,"2026-09-22":0.9486,"2026-09-23":0.9487,"2026-09-24":0.9489,"2026-09-25":0.9488,"2026-09-26":0.949,"2026-09-27":0.949,"2026-09-28":0.9487,"2026-09-29":0.9487,"2026-09-30":0.9489,"2026-10-01":0.9496,"2026-10-02":0.9488,"2026-10-03":0.9489,"2026-10-04":0.9487,"2026-10-05":0.9487,"2026-10-06":0.9488,"2026-10-07":0.9487,"2026-10-08":0.9483,"2026-10-09":0.9483}},"binary":{"events":206,"theta":0.0031,"theta_se":0.0017,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.8023,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.7989,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.8057,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.833,"avg_return":101.97,"ece":0.0313,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.8048,"history":{"2026-09-04":0.8006,"2026-09-05":0.8033,"2026-09-06":0.804,"2026-09-07":0.7994,"2026-09-08":0.7994,"2026-09-09":0.7994,"2026-09-10":0.8021,"2026-09-11":0.8033,"2026-09-12":0.8025,"2026-09-13":0.8006,"2026-09-14":0.8008,"2026-09-15":0.8009,"2026-09-16":0.8007,"2026-09-17":0.8005,"2026-09-18":0.8008,"2026-09-19":0.801,"2026-09-20":0.8021,"2026-09-21":0.8021,"2026-09-22":0.8024,"2026-09-23":0.8024,"2026-09-24":0.8024,"2026-09-25":0.8021,"2026-09-26":0.8031,"2026-09-27":0.8031,"2026-09-28":0.803,"2026-09-29":0.803,"2026-09-30":0.8031,"2026-10-01":0.8046,"2026-10-02":0.805,"2026-10-03":0.8038,"2026-10-04":0.8038,"2026-10-05":0.803,"2026-10-06":0.8045,"2026-10-07":0.8048,"2026-10-08":0.805,"2026-10-09":0.8048}},"multi":{"events":105,"theta":0.0024,"theta_se":0.0025,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9755,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9707,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.9803,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.9769,"avg_return":95.68,"ece":0.0236,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9756,"history":{"2026-09-07":0.9843,"2026-09-08":0.9843,"2026-09-09":0.9841,"2026-09-10":0.9842,"2026-09-11":0.9831,"2026-09-12":0.9828,"2026-09-13":0.9786,"2026-09-14":0.9784,"2026-09-15":0.9774,"2026-09-16":0.9772,"2026-09-17":0.9772,"2026-09-18":0.9772,"2026-09-19":0.9771,"2026-09-20":0.9771,"2026-09-21":0.9775,"2026-09-22":0.9774,"2026-09-23":0.9775,"2026-09-24":0.9773,"2026-09-25":0.9773,"2026-09-26":0.9774,"2026-09-27":0.9773,"2026-09-28":0.977,"2026-09-29":0.977,"2026-09-30":0.977,"2026-10-01":0.9771,"2026-10-02":0.9762,"2026-10-03":0.9761,"2026-10-04":0.9759,"2026-10-05":0.976,"2026-10-06":0.9761,"2026-10-07":0.9759,"2026-10-08":0.9757,"2026-10-09":0.9756}}}},{"forecaster":"agent-claude-fable-5","searcher":null,"track":"agent","anchor":false,"provider_key":"anthropic","display_name":"Agent Claude Fable 5","theta":0.0028,"theta_se":0.0015,"slices":{"all":{"events":755,"theta":0.0028,"theta_se":0.0015,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9484,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9454,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.9514,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.9567,"avg_return":123.92,"ece":0.013,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9482,"history":{"2026-08-11":0.9472,"2026-08-12":0.9471,"2026-08-13":0.9469,"2026-08-14":0.9472,"2026-08-15":0.9471,"2026-08-16":0.9471,"2026-08-17":0.9467,"2026-08-18":0.9472,"2026-08-19":0.9473,"2026-08-20":0.9473,"2026-08-21":0.9472,"2026-08-22":0.947,"2026-08-23":0.9474,"2026-08-24":0.9473,"2026-08-25":0.9477,"2026-08-26":0.9476,"2026-08-27":0.9478,"2026-08-28":0.9474,"2026-08-29":0.9469,"2026-08-30":0.9475,"2026-08-31":0.9479,"2026-09-01":0.9478,"2026-09-02":0.9477,"2026-09-03":0.9481,"2026-09-04":0.9479,"2026-09-05":0.9476,"2026-09-06":0.9476,"2026-09-07":0.9473,"2026-09-08":0.9473,"2026-09-09":0.9474,"2026-09-10":0.9474,"2026-09-11":0.9476,"2026-09-12":0.947,"2026-09-13":0.9476,"2026-09-14":0.9478,"2026-09-15":0.9476,"2026-09-16":0.9478,"2026-09-17":0.9478,"2026-09-18":0.9477,"2026-09-19":0.9477,"2026-09-20":0.9475,"2026-09-21":0.9474,"2026-09-22":0.9473,"2026-09-23":0.9476,"2026-09-24":0.9482,"2026-09-25":0.9481,"2026-09-26":0.9481,"2026-09-27":0.948,"2026-09-28":0.948,"2026-09-29":0.9482,"2026-09-30":0.9479,"2026-10-01":0.9484,"2026-10-02":0.9484,"2026-10-03":0.9487,"2026-10-04":0.9483,"2026-10-05":0.9482,"2026-10-06":0.9484,"2026-10-07":0.9484,"2026-10-08":0.9483,"2026-10-09":0.9482}},"binary":{"events":499,"theta":0.0035,"theta_se":0.0021,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.8027,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.7987,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.8067,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.7983,"avg_return":141.61,"ece":0.0263,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.8025,"history":{"2026-08-11":0.8049,"2026-08-12":0.8021,"2026-08-13":0.8021,"2026-08-14":0.802,"2026-08-15":0.801,"2026-08-16":0.8023,"2026-08-17":0.8022,"2026-08-18":0.8038,"2026-08-19":0.8033,"2026-08-20":0.8035,"2026-08-21":0.8006,"2026-08-22":0.8032,"2026-08-23":0.8007,"2026-08-24":0.8037,"2026-08-25":0.8037,"2026-08-26":0.8009,"2026-08-27":0.8009,"2026-08-28":0.8017,"2026-08-29":0.8006,"2026-08-30":0.8014,"2026-08-31":0.8006,"2026-09-01":0.801,"2026-09-02":0.801,"2026-09-03":0.801,"2026-09-04":0.8017,"2026-09-05":0.8031,"2026-09-06":0.8043,"2026-09-07":0.8016,"2026-09-08":0.8016,"2026-09-09":0.8016,"2026-09-10":0.8043,"2026-09-11":0.8043,"2026-09-12":0.8034,"2026-09-13":0.8025,"2026-09-14":0.8025,"2026-09-15":0.8025,"2026-09-16":0.8031,"2026-09-17":0.8028,"2026-09-18":0.8028,"2026-09-19":0.8044,"2026-09-20":0.8039,"2026-09-21":0.8039,"2026-09-22":0.8039,"2026-09-23":0.8039,"2026-09-24":0.8039,"2026-09-25":0.804,"2026-09-26":0.8037,"2026-09-27":0.8037,"2026-09-28":0.8043,"2026-09-29":0.8043,"2026-09-30":0.8043,"2026-10-01":0.8053,"2026-10-02":0.8049,"2026-10-03":0.803,"2026-10-04":0.8034,"2026-10-05":0.8043,"2026-10-06":0.8047,"2026-10-07":0.8026,"2026-10-08":0.8026,"2026-10-09":0.8025}},"multi":{"events":256,"theta":0.0024,"theta_se":0.002,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9756,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9716,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.9796,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.98,"avg_return":119.99,"ece":0.0102,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9756,"history":{"2026-08-11":0.9751,"2026-08-12":0.9749,"2026-08-13":0.9749,"2026-08-14":0.9752,"2026-08-15":0.9752,"2026-08-16":0.9754,"2026-08-17":0.9754,"2026-08-18":0.9754,"2026-08-19":0.9757,"2026-08-20":0.9758,"2026-08-21":0.9759,"2026-08-22":0.9757,"2026-08-23":0.9759,"2026-08-24":0.9757,"2026-08-25":0.9756,"2026-08-26":0.9756,"2026-08-27":0.9754,"2026-08-28":0.9751,"2026-08-29":0.9751,"2026-08-30":0.9754,"2026-08-31":0.9756,"2026-09-01":0.9756,"2026-09-02":0.9756,"2026-09-03":0.9757,"2026-09-04":0.9755,"2026-09-05":0.9753,"2026-09-06":0.9753,"2026-09-07":0.9753,"2026-09-08":0.9753,"2026-09-09":0.9751,"2026-09-10":0.9751,"2026-09-11":0.9751,"2026-09-12":0.975,"2026-09-13":0.9751,"2026-09-14":0.9752,"2026-09-15":0.9751,"2026-09-16":0.9749,"2026-09-17":0.9749,"2026-09-18":0.9749,"2026-09-19":0.9749,"2026-09-20":0.9749,"2026-09-21":0.975,"2026-09-22":0.975,"2026-09-23":0.9751,"2026-09-24":0.9752,"2026-09-25":0.9753,"2026-09-26":0.9755,"2026-09-27":0.9755,"2026-09-28":0.9754,"2026-09-29":0.9754,"2026-09-30":0.9753,"2026-10-01":0.9754,"2026-10-02":0.9756,"2026-10-03":0.9756,"2026-10-04":0.9756,"2026-10-05":0.9756,"2026-10-06":0.9756,"2026-10-07":0.9756,"2026-10-08":0.9756,"2026-10-09":0.9756}}}},{"forecaster":"glm-5.3","searcher":null,"track":"llm","anchor":false,"provider_key":"zhipu","display_name":"GLM-5.3","theta":0.0022,"theta_se":0.0019,"slices":{"all":{"events":402,"theta":0.0022,"theta_se":0.0019,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9478,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.944,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.9516,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.9579,"avg_return":93.71,"ece":0.015,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9477,"history":{"2026-08-22":0.941,"2026-08-23":0.9436,"2026-08-24":0.9499,"2026-08-25":0.9499,"2026-08-26":0.9498,"2026-08-27":0.9496,"2026-08-28":0.9488,"2026-08-29":0.948,"2026-08-30":0.948,"2026-08-31":0.9487,"2026-09-01":0.9486,"2026-09-02":0.9486,"2026-09-03":0.9485,"2026-09-04":0.9494,"2026-09-05":0.9484,"2026-09-06":0.9482,"2026-09-07":0.9484,"2026-09-08":0.9484,"2026-09-09":0.9483,"2026-09-10":0.9483,"2026-09-11":0.9483,"2026-09-12":0.9478,"2026-09-13":0.9478,"2026-09-14":0.9478,"2026-09-15":0.9475,"2026-09-16":0.9477,"2026-09-17":0.9478,"2026-09-18":0.9477,"2026-09-19":0.9478,"2026-09-20":0.9476,"2026-09-21":0.9477,"2026-09-22":0.9477,"2026-09-23":0.9479,"2026-09-24":0.9482,"2026-09-25":0.9484,"2026-09-26":0.9484,"2026-09-27":0.9484,"2026-09-28":0.9485,"2026-09-29":0.9485,"2026-09-30":0.9487,"2026-10-01":0.949,"2026-10-02":0.9487,"2026-10-03":0.9487,"2026-10-04":0.9486,"2026-10-05":0.9482,"2026-10-06":0.9483,"2026-10-07":0.948,"2026-10-08":0.9478,"2026-10-09":0.9477}},"binary":{"events":254,"theta":0.0022,"theta_se":0.0027,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.8014,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.7961,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.8067,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.8339,"avg_return":97.06,"ece":0.0256,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.8042,"history":{"2026-08-22":0.797,"2026-08-23":0.7979,"2026-08-24":0.8015,"2026-08-25":0.8015,"2026-08-26":0.7986,"2026-08-27":0.7986,"2026-08-28":0.7987,"2026-08-29":0.7966,"2026-08-30":0.7979,"2026-08-31":0.7974,"2026-09-01":0.7984,"2026-09-02":0.7984,"2026-09-03":0.7984,"2026-09-04":0.7998,"2026-09-05":0.7971,"2026-09-06":0.799,"2026-09-07":0.7958,"2026-09-08":0.7958,"2026-09-09":0.7958,"2026-09-10":0.7992,"2026-09-11":0.7998,"2026-09-12":0.7986,"2026-09-13":0.7994,"2026-09-14":0.7995,"2026-09-15":0.7997,"2026-09-16":0.8001,"2026-09-17":0.8002,"2026-09-18":0.8005,"2026-09-19":0.8048,"2026-09-20":0.8049,"2026-09-21":0.8049,"2026-09-22":0.8051,"2026-09-23":0.8051,"2026-09-24":0.8051,"2026-09-25":0.8053,"2026-09-26":0.8049,"2026-09-27":0.8045,"2026-09-28":0.8049,"2026-09-29":0.8047,"2026-09-30":0.8048,"2026-10-01":0.8071,"2026-10-02":0.8071,"2026-10-03":0.8052,"2026-10-04":0.8054,"2026-10-05":0.8023,"2026-10-06":0.8054,"2026-10-07":0.8045,"2026-10-08":0.8048,"2026-10-09":0.8042}},"multi":{"events":148,"theta":0.0015,"theta_se":0.0026,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9746,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9695,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.9797,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.9768,"avg_return":92.19,"ece":0.0238,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9746,"history":{"2026-08-24":0.982,"2026-08-25":0.982,"2026-08-26":0.9811,"2026-08-27":0.9786,"2026-08-28":0.9769,"2026-08-29":0.9763,"2026-08-30":0.9763,"2026-08-31":0.9768,"2026-09-01":0.9765,"2026-09-02":0.9765,"2026-09-03":0.9764,"2026-09-04":0.9773,"2026-09-05":0.9767,"2026-09-06":0.9765,"2026-09-07":0.9764,"2026-09-08":0.9764,"2026-09-09":0.9763,"2026-09-10":0.9763,"2026-09-11":0.9762,"2026-09-12":0.9761,"2026-09-13":0.9758,"2026-09-14":0.9757,"2026-09-15":0.9753,"2026-09-16":0.9754,"2026-09-17":0.9754,"2026-09-18":0.9754,"2026-09-19":0.9749,"2026-09-20":0.9749,"2026-09-21":0.9752,"2026-09-22":0.9752,"2026-09-23":0.9752,"2026-09-24":0.9753,"2026-09-25":0.9755,"2026-09-26":0.9756,"2026-09-27":0.9758,"2026-09-28":0.9759,"2026-09-29":0.9759,"2026-09-30":0.9759,"2026-10-01":0.9758,"2026-10-02":0.9756,"2026-10-03":0.9755,"2026-10-04":0.9755,"2026-10-05":0.9754,"2026-10-06":0.9754,"2026-10-07":0.9748,"2026-10-08":0.9747,"2026-10-09":0.9746}}}},{"forecaster":"gemini-3.1-pro","searcher":null,"track":"llm","anchor":false,"provider_key":"google","display_name":"Gemini 3.1 Pro","theta":0.0021,"theta_se":0.0013,"slices":{"all":{"events":1324,"theta":0.0021,"theta_se":0.0013,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9477,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9452,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.9502,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.9577,"avg_return":106.43,"ece":0.0162,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9472,"history":{"2026-08-11":0.9465,"2026-08-12":0.9462,"2026-08-13":0.9462,"2026-08-14":0.9458,"2026-08-15":0.9458,"2026-08-16":0.9461,"2026-08-17":0.9459,"2026-08-18":0.946,"2026-08-19":0.9464,"2026-08-20":0.9461,"2026-08-21":0.946,"2026-08-22":0.946,"2026-08-23":0.9463,"2026-08-24":0.9465,"2026-08-25":0.9468,"2026-08-26":0.9465,"2026-08-27":0.9469,"2026-08-28":0.9466,"2026-08-29":0.9461,"2026-08-30":0.9468,"2026-08-31":0.9472,"2026-09-01":0.9471,"2026-09-02":0.9469,"2026-09-03":0.9472,"2026-09-04":0.9469,"2026-09-05":0.9468,"2026-09-06":0.9467,"2026-09-07":0.9466,"2026-09-08":0.9466,"2026-09-09":0.9463,"2026-09-10":0.9463,"2026-09-11":0.9465,"2026-09-12":0.9462,"2026-09-13":0.9467,"2026-09-14":0.9468,"2026-09-15":0.9468,"2026-09-16":0.9469,"2026-09-17":0.9468,"2026-09-18":0.9469,"2026-09-19":0.9469,"2026-09-20":0.9467,"2026-09-21":0.9467,"2026-09-22":0.9466,"2026-09-23":0.9467,"2026-09-24":0.9472,"2026-09-25":0.9472,"2026-09-26":0.9472,"2026-09-27":0.9474,"2026-09-28":0.9476,"2026-09-29":0.9475,"2026-09-30":0.9473,"2026-10-01":0.9478,"2026-10-02":0.9475,"2026-10-03":0.9481,"2026-10-04":0.9477,"2026-10-05":0.9477,"2026-10-06":0.9477,"2026-10-07":0.9478,"2026-10-08":0.9473,"2026-10-09":0.9472}},"binary":{"events":850,"theta":0.0015,"theta_se":0.0018,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.8007,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.7972,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.8042,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.7914,"avg_return":126.82,"ece":0.0314,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.8012,"history":{"2026-08-11":0.8018,"2026-08-12":0.7975,"2026-08-13":0.7973,"2026-08-14":0.7971,"2026-08-15":0.7966,"2026-08-16":0.7979,"2026-08-17":0.7977,"2026-08-18":0.8012,"2026-08-19":0.8012,"2026-08-20":0.8014,"2026-08-21":0.7968,"2026-08-22":0.8011,"2026-08-23":0.7971,"2026-08-24":0.8017,"2026-08-25":0.8017,"2026-08-26":0.7974,"2026-08-27":0.7974,"2026-08-28":0.7993,"2026-08-29":0.7971,"2026-08-30":0.799,"2026-08-31":0.7972,"2026-09-01":0.7974,"2026-09-02":0.7974,"2026-09-03":0.7974,"2026-09-04":0.7981,"2026-09-05":0.7994,"2026-09-06":0.8022,"2026-09-07":0.7983,"2026-09-08":0.7983,"2026-09-09":0.7983,"2026-09-10":0.8023,"2026-09-11":0.8022,"2026-09-12":0.8,"2026-09-13":0.8004,"2026-09-14":0.8003,"2026-09-15":0.8003,"2026-09-16":0.8,"2026-09-17":0.8007,"2026-09-18":0.8007,"2026-09-19":0.8025,"2026-09-20":0.8022,"2026-09-21":0.8023,"2026-09-22":0.8022,"2026-09-23":0.8022,"2026-09-24":0.8022,"2026-09-25":0.8024,"2026-09-26":0.8023,"2026-09-27":0.8022,"2026-09-28":0.8019,"2026-09-29":0.8019,"2026-09-30":0.8019,"2026-10-01":0.8036,"2026-10-02":0.8029,"2026-10-03":0.8013,"2026-10-04":0.8019,"2026-10-05":0.8015,"2026-10-06":0.8031,"2026-10-07":0.8013,"2026-10-08":0.8013,"2026-10-09":0.8012}},"multi":{"events":474,"theta":0.0012,"theta_se":0.0017,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9743,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9711,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.9775,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.9786,"avg_return":98.77,"ece":0.0113,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9743,"history":{"2026-08-11":0.9745,"2026-08-12":0.9744,"2026-08-13":0.9744,"2026-08-14":0.9741,"2026-08-15":0.974,"2026-08-16":0.9742,"2026-08-17":0.9742,"2026-08-18":0.9742,"2026-08-19":0.9744,"2026-08-20":0.9744,"2026-08-21":0.9745,"2026-08-22":0.9744,"2026-08-23":0.9747,"2026-08-24":0.9746,"2026-08-25":0.9745,"2026-08-26":0.9745,"2026-08-27":0.9743,"2026-08-28":0.9743,"2026-08-29":0.9742,"2026-08-30":0.9745,"2026-08-31":0.9747,"2026-09-01":0.9746,"2026-09-02":0.9747,"2026-09-03":0.9747,"2026-09-04":0.9746,"2026-09-05":0.9743,"2026-09-06":0.9743,"2026-09-07":0.9743,"2026-09-08":0.9743,"2026-09-09":0.9741,"2026-09-10":0.9741,"2026-09-11":0.9741,"2026-09-12":0.9741,"2026-09-13":0.9742,"2026-09-14":0.9742,"2026-09-15":0.9743,"2026-09-16":0.9742,"2026-09-17":0.9742,"2026-09-18":0.9742,"2026-09-19":0.9741,"2026-09-20":0.9741,"2026-09-21":0.9741,"2026-09-22":0.9742,"2026-09-23":0.9741,"2026-09-24":0.9743,"2026-09-25":0.9744,"2026-09-26":0.9747,"2026-09-27":0.9745,"2026-09-28":0.9745,"2026-09-29":0.9744,"2026-09-30":0.9744,"2026-10-01":0.9745,"2026-10-02":0.9747,"2026-10-03":0.9747,"2026-10-04":0.9747,"2026-10-05":0.9747,"2026-10-06":0.9747,"2026-10-07":0.9746,"2026-10-08":0.9744,"2026-10-09":0.9743}}}},{"forecaster":"agent-gemini-3.1-pro","searcher":null,"track":"agent","anchor":false,"provider_key":"google","display_name":"Agent Gemini 3.1 Pro","theta":0.002,"theta_se":0.0015,"slices":{"all":{"events":1228,"theta":0.002,"theta_se":0.0015,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9477,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9447,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.9507,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.9577,"avg_return":103.02,"ece":0.0152,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9479,"history":{"2026-08-11":0.9461,"2026-08-12":0.9466,"2026-08-13":0.9461,"2026-08-14":0.9467,"2026-08-15":0.9464,"2026-08-16":0.9465,"2026-08-17":0.9463,"2026-08-18":0.9471,"2026-08-19":0.9466,"2026-08-20":0.9468,"2026-08-21":0.9466,"2026-08-22":0.9469,"2026-08-23":0.947,"2026-08-24":0.9465,"2026-08-25":0.9471,"2026-08-26":0.9463,"2026-08-27":0.947,"2026-08-28":0.9467,"2026-08-29":0.9463,"2026-08-30":0.9468,"2026-08-31":0.9477,"2026-09-01":0.9472,"2026-09-02":0.9473,"2026-09-03":0.9478,"2026-09-04":0.9469,"2026-09-05":0.9466,"2026-09-06":0.9474,"2026-09-07":0.947,"2026-09-08":0.947,"2026-09-09":0.9465,"2026-09-10":0.9467,"2026-09-11":0.9471,"2026-09-12":0.9468,"2026-09-13":0.9471,"2026-09-14":0.9474,"2026-09-15":0.9468,"2026-09-16":0.9473,"2026-09-17":0.9477,"2026-09-18":0.9475,"2026-09-19":0.9474,"2026-09-20":0.9473,"2026-09-21":0.947,"2026-09-22":0.9469,"2026-09-23":0.9473,"2026-09-24":0.9478,"2026-09-25":0.9478,"2026-09-26":0.9478,"2026-09-27":0.9478,"2026-09-28":0.9483,"2026-09-29":0.9479,"2026-09-30":0.9476,"2026-10-01":0.9484,"2026-10-02":0.948,"2026-10-03":0.9485,"2026-10-04":0.9478,"2026-10-05":0.9476,"2026-10-06":0.9479,"2026-10-07":0.9479,"2026-10-08":0.9477,"2026-10-09":0.9479}},"binary":{"events":807,"theta":0.0044,"theta_se":0.002,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.8036,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.7996,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.8076,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.7936,"avg_return":160.2,"ece":0.0269,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.8036,"history":{"2026-08-11":0.8033,"2026-08-12":0.8024,"2026-08-13":0.8023,"2026-08-14":0.8022,"2026-08-15":0.8016,"2026-08-16":0.8033,"2026-08-17":0.8032,"2026-08-18":0.8026,"2026-08-19":0.8022,"2026-08-20":0.8021,"2026-08-21":0.8011,"2026-08-22":0.8019,"2026-08-23":0.8012,"2026-08-24":0.8023,"2026-08-25":0.8023,"2026-08-26":0.8013,"2026-08-27":0.8013,"2026-08-28":0.801,"2026-08-29":0.801,"2026-08-30":0.8008,"2026-08-31":0.801,"2026-09-01":0.8012,"2026-09-02":0.8012,"2026-09-03":0.8012,"2026-09-04":0.8019,"2026-09-05":0.8037,"2026-09-06":0.8029,"2026-09-07":0.802,"2026-09-08":0.802,"2026-09-09":0.802,"2026-09-10":0.8031,"2026-09-11":0.803,"2026-09-12":0.8042,"2026-09-13":0.8022,"2026-09-14":0.8021,"2026-09-15":0.8021,"2026-09-16":0.804,"2026-09-17":0.8024,"2026-09-18":0.8024,"2026-09-19":0.8041,"2026-09-20":0.8037,"2026-09-21":0.8038,"2026-09-22":0.8038,"2026-09-23":0.8038,"2026-09-24":0.8038,"2026-09-25":0.8039,"2026-09-26":0.8039,"2026-09-27":0.8038,"2026-09-28":0.8056,"2026-09-29":0.8056,"2026-09-30":0.8056,"2026-10-01":0.8056,"2026-10-02":0.8054,"2026-10-03":0.8035,"2026-10-04":0.8039,"2026-10-05":0.8055,"2026-10-06":0.8051,"2026-10-07":0.8037,"2026-10-08":0.8038,"2026-10-09":0.8036}},"multi":{"events":421,"theta":0.0014,"theta_se":0.0021,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9746,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9706,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.9786,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.979,"avg_return":94.13,"ece":0.0085,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9746,"history":{"2026-08-11":0.9737,"2026-08-12":0.9737,"2026-08-13":0.9737,"2026-08-14":0.9737,"2026-08-15":0.9737,"2026-08-16":0.9738,"2026-08-17":0.9738,"2026-08-18":0.9739,"2026-08-19":0.9741,"2026-08-20":0.9743,"2026-08-21":0.9743,"2026-08-22":0.9742,"2026-08-23":0.9746,"2026-08-24":0.9744,"2026-08-25":0.9744,"2026-08-26":0.9743,"2026-08-27":0.974,"2026-08-28":0.974,"2026-08-29":0.974,"2026-08-30":0.9743,"2026-08-31":0.9743,"2026-09-01":0.9743,"2026-09-02":0.9743,"2026-09-03":0.9743,"2026-09-04":0.9743,"2026-09-05":0.9744,"2026-09-06":0.9743,"2026-09-07":0.9742,"2026-09-08":0.9742,"2026-09-09":0.9742,"2026-09-10":0.9741,"2026-09-11":0.9741,"2026-09-12":0.974,"2026-09-13":0.9743,"2026-09-14":0.9744,"2026-09-15":0.9743,"2026-09-16":0.9742,"2026-09-17":0.9742,"2026-09-18":0.9742,"2026-09-19":0.9742,"2026-09-20":0.9742,"2026-09-21":0.9742,"2026-09-22":0.9741,"2026-09-23":0.9743,"2026-09-24":0.9744,"2026-09-25":0.9745,"2026-09-26":0.9746,"2026-09-27":0.9746,"2026-09-28":0.9747,"2026-09-29":0.9747,"2026-09-30":0.9745,"2026-10-01":0.9747,"2026-10-02":0.9748,"2026-10-03":0.9749,"2026-10-04":0.9749,"2026-10-05":0.9748,"2026-10-06":0.9749,"2026-10-07":0.9748,"2026-10-08":0.9747,"2026-10-09":0.9746}}}},{"forecaster":"grok-4.6","searcher":null,"track":"llm","anchor":false,"provider_key":"xai","display_name":"Grok 4.6","theta":0.002,"theta_se":0.0038,"slices":{"all":{"events":278,"theta":0.002,"theta_se":0.0038,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9477,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9403,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.9551,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.9579,"avg_return":103.53,"ece":0.02,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9476,"history":{"2026-08-15":0.9525,"2026-08-16":0.9486,"2026-08-17":0.9485,"2026-08-18":0.9484,"2026-08-19":0.9472,"2026-08-20":0.9471,"2026-08-21":0.947,"2026-08-22":0.9469,"2026-08-23":0.9469,"2026-08-24":0.9463,"2026-08-25":0.9464,"2026-08-26":0.9463,"2026-08-27":0.9466,"2026-08-28":0.9466,"2026-08-29":0.9465,"2026-08-30":0.9468,"2026-08-31":0.9471,"2026-09-01":0.9471,"2026-09-02":0.9471,"2026-09-03":0.9471,"2026-09-04":0.9476,"2026-09-05":0.9471,"2026-09-06":0.9469,"2026-09-07":0.9472,"2026-09-08":0.9472,"2026-09-09":0.947,"2026-09-10":0.9471,"2026-09-11":0.947,"2026-09-12":0.9467,"2026-09-13":0.947,"2026-09-14":0.9472,"2026-09-15":0.9471,"2026-09-16":0.9472,"2026-09-17":0.9471,"2026-09-18":0.9472,"2026-09-19":0.9471,"2026-09-20":0.9469,"2026-09-21":0.9469,"2026-09-22":0.9469,"2026-09-23":0.9471,"2026-09-24":0.9475,"2026-09-25":0.9476,"2026-09-26":0.9477,"2026-09-27":0.9478,"2026-09-28":0.948,"2026-09-29":0.9481,"2026-09-30":0.9481,"2026-10-01":0.948,"2026-10-02":0.9481,"2026-10-03":0.9482,"2026-10-04":0.948,"2026-10-05":0.9479,"2026-10-06":0.9479,"2026-10-07":0.9479,"2026-10-08":0.9477,"2026-10-09":0.9476}},"binary":{"events":174,"theta":0.0053,"theta_se":0.0056,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.8045,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.7935,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.8155,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.8091,"avg_return":114.76,"ece":0.0556,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.8017,"history":{"2026-08-15":0.8048,"2026-08-16":0.8056,"2026-08-17":0.8051,"2026-08-18":0.8052,"2026-08-19":0.8047,"2026-08-20":0.8043,"2026-08-21":0.8014,"2026-08-22":0.805,"2026-08-23":0.8018,"2026-08-24":0.8049,"2026-08-25":0.8049,"2026-08-26":0.8019,"2026-08-27":0.8019,"2026-08-28":0.8028,"2026-08-29":0.8022,"2026-08-30":0.8028,"2026-08-31":0.8017,"2026-09-01":0.8021,"2026-09-02":0.8021,"2026-09-03":0.8021,"2026-09-04":0.8027,"2026-09-05":0.8043,"2026-09-06":0.8057,"2026-09-07":0.8026,"2026-09-08":0.8026,"2026-09-09":0.8026,"2026-09-10":0.8056,"2026-09-11":0.8057,"2026-09-12":0.8043,"2026-09-13":0.8031,"2026-09-14":0.8033,"2026-09-15":0.8033,"2026-09-16":0.8037,"2026-09-17":0.8033,"2026-09-18":0.8036,"2026-09-19":0.8052,"2026-09-20":0.8048,"2026-09-21":0.8049,"2026-09-22":0.8051,"2026-09-23":0.8051,"2026-09-24":0.8051,"2026-09-25":0.805,"2026-09-26":0.805,"2026-09-27":0.8049,"2026-09-28":0.8055,"2026-09-29":0.8055,"2026-09-30":0.8055,"2026-10-01":0.8059,"2026-10-02":0.8054,"2026-10-03":0.803,"2026-10-04":0.8034,"2026-10-05":0.8064,"2026-10-06":0.8056,"2026-10-07":0.8018,"2026-10-08":0.8018,"2026-10-09":0.8017}},"multi":{"events":104,"theta":0.0017,"theta_se":0.0037,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9749,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9676,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.9822,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.9784,"avg_return":98.8,"ece":0.0193,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9749,"history":{"2026-08-18":0.9761,"2026-08-19":0.9738,"2026-08-20":0.9738,"2026-08-21":0.9737,"2026-08-22":0.9737,"2026-08-23":0.9736,"2026-08-24":0.9731,"2026-08-25":0.9731,"2026-08-26":0.9729,"2026-08-27":0.9737,"2026-08-28":0.9739,"2026-08-29":0.9739,"2026-08-30":0.9741,"2026-08-31":0.9743,"2026-09-01":0.9741,"2026-09-02":0.9741,"2026-09-03":0.974,"2026-09-04":0.9748,"2026-09-05":0.9743,"2026-09-06":0.9742,"2026-09-07":0.9746,"2026-09-08":0.9746,"2026-09-09":0.9743,"2026-09-10":0.9744,"2026-09-11":0.9742,"2026-09-12":0.9742,"2026-09-13":0.9741,"2026-09-14":0.9742,"2026-09-15":0.9741,"2026-09-16":0.9741,"2026-09-17":0.9741,"2026-09-18":0.9741,"2026-09-19":0.974,"2026-09-20":0.974,"2026-09-21":0.9741,"2026-09-22":0.9741,"2026-09-23":0.9743,"2026-09-24":0.9744,"2026-09-25":0.9746,"2026-09-26":0.9748,"2026-09-27":0.975,"2026-09-28":0.9752,"2026-09-29":0.9752,"2026-09-30":0.9752,"2026-10-01":0.9752,"2026-10-02":0.9753,"2026-10-03":0.9754,"2026-10-04":0.9754,"2026-10-05":0.9754,"2026-10-06":0.9754,"2026-10-07":0.9752,"2026-10-08":0.975,"2026-10-09":0.9749}}}},{"forecaster":"agent-gpt-5.6-sol","searcher":null,"track":"agent","anchor":false,"provider_key":"openai","display_name":"Agent GPT-5.6 Sol","theta":0.0019,"theta_se":0.002,"slices":{"all":{"events":737,"theta":0.0019,"theta_se":0.002,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9476,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9437,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.9515,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.9526,"avg_return":120.66,"ece":0.0161,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9481,"history":{"2026-08-11":0.9475,"2026-08-12":0.9476,"2026-08-13":0.9473,"2026-08-14":0.9477,"2026-08-15":0.9472,"2026-08-16":0.9474,"2026-08-17":0.9473,"2026-08-18":0.9478,"2026-08-19":0.9474,"2026-08-20":0.9478,"2026-08-21":0.9475,"2026-08-22":0.9477,"2026-08-23":0.948,"2026-08-24":0.9477,"2026-08-25":0.9479,"2026-08-26":0.9477,"2026-08-27":0.9479,"2026-08-28":0.9476,"2026-08-29":0.9473,"2026-08-30":0.9479,"2026-08-31":0.9483,"2026-09-01":0.9482,"2026-09-02":0.9482,"2026-09-03":0.9485,"2026-09-04":0.9482,"2026-09-05":0.948,"2026-09-06":0.9483,"2026-09-07":0.9479,"2026-09-08":0.9479,"2026-09-09":0.9476,"2026-09-10":0.9476,"2026-09-11":0.9479,"2026-09-12":0.9474,"2026-09-13":0.9478,"2026-09-14":0.948,"2026-09-15":0.9477,"2026-09-16":0.9479,"2026-09-17":0.9481,"2026-09-18":0.9479,"2026-09-19":0.9479,"2026-09-20":0.9477,"2026-09-21":0.9477,"2026-09-22":0.9478,"2026-09-23":0.948,"2026-09-24":0.9484,"2026-09-25":0.9484,"2026-09-26":0.9485,"2026-09-27":0.9483,"2026-09-28":0.9483,"2026-09-29":0.9482,"2026-09-30":0.9483,"2026-10-01":0.9483,"2026-10-02":0.9483,"2026-10-03":0.9484,"2026-10-04":0.948,"2026-10-05":0.948,"2026-10-06":0.9482,"2026-10-07":0.9481,"2026-10-08":0.9479,"2026-10-09":0.9481}},"binary":{"events":491,"theta":0.0059,"theta_se":0.0027,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.8052,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.7998,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.8106,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.8008,"avg_return":147.58,"ece":0.0309,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.8045,"history":{"2026-08-11":0.8069,"2026-08-12":0.8055,"2026-08-13":0.8053,"2026-08-14":0.805,"2026-08-15":0.8034,"2026-08-16":0.8051,"2026-08-17":0.805,"2026-08-18":0.8046,"2026-08-19":0.8043,"2026-08-20":0.8043,"2026-08-21":0.8029,"2026-08-22":0.8042,"2026-08-23":0.8032,"2026-08-24":0.8047,"2026-08-25":0.8047,"2026-08-26":0.8034,"2026-08-27":0.8034,"2026-08-28":0.8031,"2026-08-29":0.8029,"2026-08-30":0.8027,"2026-08-31":0.8029,"2026-09-01":0.8032,"2026-09-02":0.8032,"2026-09-03":0.8032,"2026-09-04":0.8039,"2026-09-05":0.8058,"2026-09-06":0.8054,"2026-09-07":0.804,"2026-09-08":0.804,"2026-09-09":0.804,"2026-09-10":0.8055,"2026-09-11":0.8054,"2026-09-12":0.8062,"2026-09-13":0.804,"2026-09-14":0.8038,"2026-09-15":0.8039,"2026-09-16":0.8056,"2026-09-17":0.8042,"2026-09-18":0.8042,"2026-09-19":0.8063,"2026-09-20":0.806,"2026-09-21":0.806,"2026-09-22":0.8061,"2026-09-23":0.8061,"2026-09-24":0.8061,"2026-09-25":0.8061,"2026-09-26":0.806,"2026-09-27":0.8058,"2026-09-28":0.8074,"2026-09-29":0.8074,"2026-09-30":0.8074,"2026-10-01":0.8076,"2026-10-02":0.8073,"2026-10-03":0.8052,"2026-10-04":0.8056,"2026-10-05":0.8072,"2026-10-06":0.8069,"2026-10-07":0.8046,"2026-10-08":0.8047,"2026-10-09":0.8045}},"multi":{"events":246,"theta":0.0018,"theta_se":0.0024,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.975,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9703,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.9797,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.9776,"avg_return":114.31,"ece":0.0152,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.975,"history":{"2026-08-11":0.9751,"2026-08-12":0.9749,"2026-08-13":0.975,"2026-08-14":0.9752,"2026-08-15":0.9754,"2026-08-16":0.9757,"2026-08-17":0.9757,"2026-08-18":0.9757,"2026-08-19":0.976,"2026-08-20":0.9761,"2026-08-21":0.9762,"2026-08-22":0.976,"2026-08-23":0.9762,"2026-08-24":0.9759,"2026-08-25":0.9758,"2026-08-26":0.9758,"2026-08-27":0.9755,"2026-08-28":0.9754,"2026-08-29":0.9754,"2026-08-30":0.9757,"2026-08-31":0.9757,"2026-09-01":0.9756,"2026-09-02":0.9757,"2026-09-03":0.9757,"2026-09-04":0.9759,"2026-09-05":0.9759,"2026-09-06":0.9758,"2026-09-07":0.9752,"2026-09-08":0.9752,"2026-09-09":0.9751,"2026-09-10":0.9751,"2026-09-11":0.9751,"2026-09-12":0.975,"2026-09-13":0.9752,"2026-09-14":0.9752,"2026-09-15":0.9751,"2026-09-16":0.975,"2026-09-17":0.975,"2026-09-18":0.975,"2026-09-19":0.9749,"2026-09-20":0.9749,"2026-09-21":0.9751,"2026-09-22":0.975,"2026-09-23":0.9752,"2026-09-24":0.9753,"2026-09-25":0.9754,"2026-09-26":0.9756,"2026-09-27":0.9755,"2026-09-28":0.9753,"2026-09-29":0.9753,"2026-09-30":0.9752,"2026-10-01":0.9753,"2026-10-02":0.9754,"2026-10-03":0.9755,"2026-10-04":0.9755,"2026-10-05":0.9754,"2026-10-06":0.9755,"2026-10-07":0.9753,"2026-10-08":0.975,"2026-10-09":0.975}}}},{"forecaster":"gpt-5.6-sol","searcher":null,"track":"llm","anchor":false,"provider_key":"openai","display_name":"GPT-5.6 Sol","theta":0.0017,"theta_se":0.0012,"slices":{"all":{"events":858,"theta":0.0017,"theta_se":0.0012,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9473,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9449,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.9497,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.956,"avg_return":104.15,"ece":0.011,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9471,"history":{"2026-08-11":0.9459,"2026-08-12":0.9457,"2026-08-13":0.9457,"2026-08-14":0.9456,"2026-08-15":0.9455,"2026-08-16":0.9457,"2026-08-17":0.9456,"2026-08-18":0.9459,"2026-08-19":0.9458,"2026-08-20":0.9459,"2026-08-21":0.9457,"2026-08-22":0.9458,"2026-08-23":0.9462,"2026-08-24":0.9463,"2026-08-25":0.9463,"2026-08-26":0.9463,"2026-08-27":0.9464,"2026-08-28":0.9461,"2026-08-29":0.9459,"2026-08-30":0.9465,"2026-08-31":0.9467,"2026-09-01":0.9468,"2026-09-02":0.9468,"2026-09-03":0.9469,"2026-09-04":0.9468,"2026-09-05":0.9465,"2026-09-06":0.9464,"2026-09-07":0.9464,"2026-09-08":0.9464,"2026-09-09":0.9462,"2026-09-10":0.9462,"2026-09-11":0.9463,"2026-09-12":0.946,"2026-09-13":0.9466,"2026-09-14":0.9467,"2026-09-15":0.9466,"2026-09-16":0.9467,"2026-09-17":0.9467,"2026-09-18":0.9467,"2026-09-19":0.9466,"2026-09-20":0.9464,"2026-09-21":0.9464,"2026-09-22":0.9465,"2026-09-23":0.9466,"2026-09-24":0.9471,"2026-09-25":0.9471,"2026-09-26":0.9473,"2026-09-27":0.9471,"2026-09-28":0.9471,"2026-09-29":0.9472,"2026-09-30":0.9472,"2026-10-01":0.9475,"2026-10-02":0.9475,"2026-10-03":0.9479,"2026-10-04":0.9477,"2026-10-05":0.9475,"2026-10-06":0.9477,"2026-10-07":0.9476,"2026-10-08":0.9473,"2026-10-09":0.9471}},"binary":{"events":534,"theta":0.0026,"theta_se":0.0015,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.8019,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.7991,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.8047,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.7994,"avg_return":120.39,"ece":0.0276,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.8031,"history":{"2026-08-11":0.8013,"2026-08-12":0.7987,"2026-08-13":0.7986,"2026-08-14":0.7982,"2026-08-15":0.7977,"2026-08-16":0.7996,"2026-08-17":0.7996,"2026-08-18":0.8012,"2026-08-19":0.8015,"2026-08-20":0.8016,"2026-08-21":0.7983,"2026-08-22":0.8014,"2026-08-23":0.7988,"2026-08-24":0.8023,"2026-08-25":0.8023,"2026-08-26":0.7993,"2026-08-27":0.7993,"2026-08-28":0.8002,"2026-08-29":0.799,"2026-08-30":0.8,"2026-08-31":0.799,"2026-09-01":0.7993,"2026-09-02":0.7993,"2026-09-03":0.7993,"2026-09-04":0.7999,"2026-09-05":0.8014,"2026-09-06":0.8029,"2026-09-07":0.8,"2026-09-08":0.8,"2026-09-09":0.8,"2026-09-10":0.803,"2026-09-11":0.803,"2026-09-12":0.8021,"2026-09-13":0.8016,"2026-09-14":0.8015,"2026-09-15":0.8015,"2026-09-16":0.802,"2026-09-17":0.8018,"2026-09-18":0.8019,"2026-09-19":0.8035,"2026-09-20":0.8032,"2026-09-21":0.8033,"2026-09-22":0.8033,"2026-09-23":0.8033,"2026-09-24":0.8033,"2026-09-25":0.8034,"2026-09-26":0.8034,"2026-09-27":0.8033,"2026-09-28":0.8038,"2026-09-29":0.8037,"2026-09-30":0.8038,"2026-10-01":0.8042,"2026-10-02":0.8042,"2026-10-03":0.8025,"2026-10-04":0.803,"2026-10-05":0.8026,"2026-10-06":0.8038,"2026-10-07":0.8032,"2026-10-08":0.8033,"2026-10-09":0.8031}},"multi":{"events":324,"theta":0.0007,"theta_se":0.0021,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9739,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9698,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.978,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.9769,"avg_return":98.52,"ece":0.0156,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9739,"history":{"2026-08-11":0.9739,"2026-08-12":0.9738,"2026-08-13":0.9739,"2026-08-14":0.9738,"2026-08-15":0.9738,"2026-08-16":0.974,"2026-08-17":0.974,"2026-08-18":0.974,"2026-08-19":0.9741,"2026-08-20":0.9741,"2026-08-21":0.9742,"2026-08-22":0.9742,"2026-08-23":0.9744,"2026-08-24":0.9742,"2026-08-25":0.9741,"2026-08-26":0.9741,"2026-08-27":0.9739,"2026-08-28":0.9738,"2026-08-29":0.9738,"2026-08-30":0.9741,"2026-08-31":0.9743,"2026-09-01":0.9743,"2026-09-02":0.9743,"2026-09-03":0.9743,"2026-09-04":0.9744,"2026-09-05":0.9738,"2026-09-06":0.9738,"2026-09-07":0.9737,"2026-09-08":0.9737,"2026-09-09":0.9735,"2026-09-10":0.9735,"2026-09-11":0.9736,"2026-09-12":0.9736,"2026-09-13":0.9736,"2026-09-14":0.9737,"2026-09-15":0.9737,"2026-09-16":0.9736,"2026-09-17":0.9737,"2026-09-18":0.9737,"2026-09-19":0.9736,"2026-09-20":0.9736,"2026-09-21":0.9737,"2026-09-22":0.9737,"2026-09-23":0.9737,"2026-09-24":0.9739,"2026-09-25":0.9741,"2026-09-26":0.9743,"2026-09-27":0.9742,"2026-09-28":0.9741,"2026-09-29":0.9741,"2026-09-30":0.9741,"2026-10-01":0.9741,"2026-10-02":0.9744,"2026-10-03":0.9744,"2026-10-04":0.9744,"2026-10-05":0.9744,"2026-10-06":0.9744,"2026-10-07":0.9743,"2026-10-08":0.974,"2026-10-09":0.9739}}}},{"forecaster":"deepseek-v4-pro-0813","searcher":null,"track":"llm","anchor":false,"provider_key":"deepseek","display_name":"DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813","theta":0.0016,"theta_se":0.003,"slices":{"all":{"events":395,"theta":0.0016,"theta_se":0.003,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9472,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9414,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.953,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.958,"avg_return":97.16,"ece":0.0142,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9472,"history":{"2026-08-15":0.9515,"2026-08-16":0.9486,"2026-08-17":0.9485,"2026-08-18":0.9484,"2026-08-19":0.9488,"2026-08-20":0.9487,"2026-08-21":0.9485,"2026-08-22":0.9479,"2026-08-23":0.9474,"2026-08-24":0.9466,"2026-08-25":0.9466,"2026-08-26":0.9465,"2026-08-27":0.9467,"2026-08-28":0.9463,"2026-08-29":0.9458,"2026-08-30":0.9463,"2026-08-31":0.9466,"2026-09-01":0.9468,"2026-09-02":0.9468,"2026-09-03":0.9469,"2026-09-04":0.9459,"2026-09-05":0.9455,"2026-09-06":0.9454,"2026-09-07":0.9459,"2026-09-08":0.9459,"2026-09-09":0.9458,"2026-09-10":0.9458,"2026-09-11":0.9457,"2026-09-12":0.9456,"2026-09-13":0.9461,"2026-09-14":0.9463,"2026-09-15":0.9462,"2026-09-16":0.9464,"2026-09-17":0.9464,"2026-09-18":0.9464,"2026-09-19":0.9467,"2026-09-20":0.9465,"2026-09-21":0.9466,"2026-09-22":0.9466,"2026-09-23":0.9468,"2026-09-24":0.9471,"2026-09-25":0.9472,"2026-09-26":0.9473,"2026-09-27":0.9474,"2026-09-28":0.9476,"2026-09-29":0.9477,"2026-09-30":0.9476,"2026-10-01":0.9477,"2026-10-02":0.9476,"2026-10-03":0.9478,"2026-10-04":0.9475,"2026-10-05":0.9475,"2026-10-06":0.9475,"2026-10-07":0.9475,"2026-10-08":0.9473,"2026-10-09":0.9472}},"binary":{"events":252,"theta":0.005,"theta_se":0.0042,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.8042,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.7959,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.8125,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.8299,"avg_return":126.88,"ece":0.0309,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.8012,"history":{"2026-08-16":0.8004,"2026-08-17":0.7999,"2026-08-18":0.8008,"2026-08-19":0.802,"2026-08-20":0.8022,"2026-08-21":0.7992,"2026-08-22":0.8013,"2026-08-23":0.7986,"2026-08-24":0.801,"2026-08-25":0.801,"2026-08-26":0.7978,"2026-08-27":0.7978,"2026-08-28":0.7982,"2026-08-29":0.796,"2026-08-30":0.7969,"2026-08-31":0.7958,"2026-09-01":0.7968,"2026-09-02":0.7968,"2026-09-03":0.7968,"2026-09-04":0.7979,"2026-09-05":0.7999,"2026-09-06":0.8016,"2026-09-07":0.7985,"2026-09-08":0.7985,"2026-09-09":0.7985,"2026-09-10":0.8014,"2026-09-11":0.8015,"2026-09-12":0.8008,"2026-09-13":0.8006,"2026-09-14":0.8005,"2026-09-15":0.8006,"2026-09-16":0.8011,"2026-09-17":0.8009,"2026-09-18":0.8012,"2026-09-19":0.8053,"2026-09-20":0.8048,"2026-09-21":0.8049,"2026-09-22":0.8052,"2026-09-23":0.8052,"2026-09-24":0.8052,"2026-09-25":0.805,"2026-09-26":0.8049,"2026-09-27":0.8047,"2026-09-28":0.805,"2026-09-29":0.8049,"2026-09-30":0.805,"2026-10-01":0.8061,"2026-10-02":0.8054,"2026-10-03":0.8029,"2026-10-04":0.8032,"2026-10-05":0.8062,"2026-10-06":0.8056,"2026-10-07":0.8013,"2026-10-08":0.8014,"2026-10-09":0.8012}},"multi":{"events":143,"theta":0.0013,"theta_se":0.0035,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9745,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9677,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.9813,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.9776,"avg_return":95.43,"ece":0.0174,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9745,"history":{"2026-08-18":0.9792,"2026-08-19":0.9807,"2026-08-20":0.9807,"2026-08-21":0.9808,"2026-08-22":0.9794,"2026-08-23":0.9785,"2026-08-24":0.9759,"2026-08-25":0.9758,"2026-08-26":0.9756,"2026-08-27":0.9753,"2026-08-28":0.9747,"2026-08-29":0.9745,"2026-08-30":0.9749,"2026-08-31":0.975,"2026-09-01":0.975,"2026-09-02":0.975,"2026-09-03":0.9749,"2026-09-04":0.9737,"2026-09-05":0.9732,"2026-09-06":0.9732,"2026-09-07":0.9738,"2026-09-08":0.9738,"2026-09-09":0.9736,"2026-09-10":0.9736,"2026-09-11":0.9736,"2026-09-12":0.9736,"2026-09-13":0.9736,"2026-09-14":0.9737,"2026-09-15":0.9736,"2026-09-16":0.9736,"2026-09-17":0.9736,"2026-09-18":0.9736,"2026-09-19":0.9735,"2026-09-20":0.9735,"2026-09-21":0.9738,"2026-09-22":0.9738,"2026-09-23":0.974,"2026-09-24":0.9741,"2026-09-25":0.9742,"2026-09-26":0.9744,"2026-09-27":0.9746,"2026-09-28":0.9748,"2026-09-29":0.9748,"2026-09-30":0.9747,"2026-10-01":0.9748,"2026-10-02":0.9749,"2026-10-03":0.975,"2026-10-04":0.975,"2026-10-05":0.975,"2026-10-06":0.975,"2026-10-07":0.9747,"2026-10-08":0.9746,"2026-10-09":0.9745}}}},{"forecaster":"claude-fable-5","searcher":null,"track":"llm","anchor":false,"provider_key":"anthropic","display_name":"Claude Fable 5","theta":0.0014,"theta_se":0.0011,"slices":{"all":{"events":842,"theta":0.0014,"theta_se":0.0011,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9471,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.945,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.9492,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.9571,"avg_return":102.48,"ece":0.0109,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9471,"history":{"2026-08-11":0.9458,"2026-08-12":0.9455,"2026-08-13":0.9455,"2026-08-14":0.9454,"2026-08-15":0.9452,"2026-08-16":0.9455,"2026-08-17":0.9454,"2026-08-18":0.9456,"2026-08-19":0.9457,"2026-08-20":0.9457,"2026-08-21":0.9455,"2026-08-22":0.9455,"2026-08-23":0.9459,"2026-08-24":0.946,"2026-08-25":0.9461,"2026-08-26":0.9461,"2026-08-27":0.9463,"2026-08-28":0.946,"2026-08-29":0.9457,"2026-08-30":0.9464,"2026-08-31":0.9466,"2026-09-01":0.9467,"2026-09-02":0.9466,"2026-09-03":0.9468,"2026-09-04":0.9466,"2026-09-05":0.9465,"2026-09-06":0.9464,"2026-09-07":0.9464,"2026-09-08":0.9464,"2026-09-09":0.9463,"2026-09-10":0.9462,"2026-09-11":0.9464,"2026-09-12":0.946,"2026-09-13":0.9465,"2026-09-14":0.9466,"2026-09-15":0.9466,"2026-09-16":0.9467,"2026-09-17":0.9466,"2026-09-18":0.9466,"2026-09-19":0.9466,"2026-09-20":0.9464,"2026-09-21":0.9464,"2026-09-22":0.9464,"2026-09-23":0.9465,"2026-09-24":0.947,"2026-09-25":0.947,"2026-09-26":0.9471,"2026-09-27":0.9471,"2026-09-28":0.9471,"2026-09-29":0.9472,"2026-09-30":0.9473,"2026-10-01":0.9473,"2026-10-02":0.9474,"2026-10-03":0.9476,"2026-10-04":0.9474,"2026-10-05":0.9473,"2026-10-06":0.9474,"2026-10-07":0.9473,"2026-10-08":0.9472,"2026-10-09":0.9471}},"binary":{"events":526,"theta":0.0022,"theta_se":0.0013,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.8014,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.7988,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.804,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.7968,"avg_return":114.04,"ece":0.0221,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.8013,"history":{"2026-08-11":0.8006,"2026-08-12":0.7982,"2026-08-13":0.7981,"2026-08-14":0.7978,"2026-08-15":0.797,"2026-08-16":0.7991,"2026-08-17":0.799,"2026-08-18":0.8001,"2026-08-19":0.8001,"2026-08-20":0.8001,"2026-08-21":0.7973,"2026-08-22":0.7998,"2026-08-23":0.7977,"2026-08-24":0.8004,"2026-08-25":0.8004,"2026-08-26":0.798,"2026-08-27":0.798,"2026-08-28":0.7986,"2026-08-29":0.7977,"2026-08-30":0.7984,"2026-08-31":0.7977,"2026-09-01":0.798,"2026-09-02":0.798,"2026-09-03":0.798,"2026-09-04":0.7987,"2026-09-05":0.8007,"2026-09-06":0.8015,"2026-09-07":0.7992,"2026-09-08":0.7992,"2026-09-09":0.7992,"2026-09-10":0.8015,"2026-09-11":0.8016,"2026-09-12":0.8014,"2026-09-13":0.8003,"2026-09-14":0.8002,"2026-09-15":0.8002,"2026-09-16":0.8012,"2026-09-17":0.8006,"2026-09-18":0.8006,"2026-09-19":0.8023,"2026-09-20":0.802,"2026-09-21":0.8021,"2026-09-22":0.8021,"2026-09-23":0.8021,"2026-09-24":0.8021,"2026-09-25":0.8022,"2026-09-26":0.8022,"2026-09-27":0.8021,"2026-09-28":0.803,"2026-09-29":0.803,"2026-09-30":0.803,"2026-10-01":0.8038,"2026-10-02":0.8035,"2026-10-03":0.8016,"2026-10-04":0.8021,"2026-10-05":0.803,"2026-10-06":0.8034,"2026-10-07":0.8014,"2026-10-08":0.8014,"2026-10-09":0.8013}},"multi":{"events":316,"theta":0.0011,"theta_se":0.0018,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9743,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9707,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.9779,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.9782,"avg_return":101.51,"ece":0.0143,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9743,"history":{"2026-08-11":0.9741,"2026-08-12":0.9739,"2026-08-13":0.9739,"2026-08-14":0.9739,"2026-08-15":0.9738,"2026-08-16":0.974,"2026-08-17":0.974,"2026-08-18":0.974,"2026-08-19":0.9743,"2026-08-20":0.9743,"2026-08-21":0.9744,"2026-08-22":0.9742,"2026-08-23":0.9745,"2026-08-24":0.9744,"2026-08-25":0.9743,"2026-08-26":0.9743,"2026-08-27":0.9742,"2026-08-28":0.9741,"2026-08-29":0.9741,"2026-08-30":0.9744,"2026-08-31":0.9745,"2026-09-01":0.9745,"2026-09-02":0.9745,"2026-09-03":0.9746,"2026-09-04":0.9744,"2026-09-05":0.9742,"2026-09-06":0.9741,"2026-09-07":0.9741,"2026-09-08":0.9741,"2026-09-09":0.9739,"2026-09-10":0.9739,"2026-09-11":0.9739,"2026-09-12":0.9739,"2026-09-13":0.974,"2026-09-14":0.9741,"2026-09-15":0.9741,"2026-09-16":0.9739,"2026-09-17":0.9739,"2026-09-18":0.9739,"2026-09-19":0.9739,"2026-09-20":0.9739,"2026-09-21":0.974,"2026-09-22":0.9739,"2026-09-23":0.974,"2026-09-24":0.9741,"2026-09-25":0.9743,"2026-09-26":0.9745,"2026-09-27":0.9744,"2026-09-28":0.9744,"2026-09-29":0.9744,"2026-09-30":0.9744,"2026-10-01":0.9745,"2026-10-02":0.9747,"2026-10-03":0.9748,"2026-10-04":0.9748,"2026-10-05":0.9747,"2026-10-06":0.9748,"2026-10-07":0.9746,"2026-10-08":0.9744,"2026-10-09":0.9743}}}},{"forecaster":"gemini-3.8-flash","searcher":null,"track":"llm","anchor":false,"provider_key":"google","display_name":"Gemini 3.8 Flash","theta":0.0013,"theta_se":0.0027,"slices":{"all":{"events":84,"theta":0.0013,"theta_se":0.0027,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.947,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9417,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.9523,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.9516,"avg_return":106.49,"ece":0.0364,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9469,"history":{"2026-10-01":0.9466,"2026-10-02":0.9428,"2026-10-03":0.9449,"2026-10-04":0.9451,"2026-10-05":0.9466,"2026-10-06":0.9472,"2026-10-07":0.9472,"2026-10-08":0.947,"2026-10-09":0.9469}},"binary":{"events":50,"theta":0.0035,"theta_se":0.0033,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.8028,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.7964,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.8092,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.8031,"avg_return":140.24,"ece":0.0956,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.803,"history":{"2026-10-02":0.8006,"2026-10-03":0.7997,"2026-10-04":0.8013,"2026-10-05":0.8031,"2026-10-06":0.805,"2026-10-07":0.8032,"2026-10-08":0.8032,"2026-10-09":0.803}},"multi":{"events":34,"theta":0.0005,"theta_se":0.0046,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9736,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9645,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.9827,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.9774,"avg_return":102.6,"ece":0.0116,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9737,"history":{"2026-10-02":0.9696,"2026-10-03":0.9713,"2026-10-04":0.9714,"2026-10-05":0.9735,"2026-10-06":0.9742,"2026-10-07":0.9739,"2026-10-08":0.9736,"2026-10-09":0.9737}}}},{"forecaster":"agent-gpt-6-astra","searcher":null,"track":"agent","anchor":false,"provider_key":"openai","display_name":"Agent GPT-6 Astra","theta":0.0012,"theta_se":0.0045,"slices":{"all":{"events":217,"theta":0.0012,"theta_se":0.0045,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9469,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9381,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.9557,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.9568,"avg_return":95.19,"ece":0.0252,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9469,"history":{"2026-09-12":0.9451,"2026-09-13":0.9453,"2026-09-14":0.9452,"2026-09-15":0.9444,"2026-09-16":0.9449,"2026-09-17":0.9449,"2026-09-18":0.9449,"2026-09-19":0.9448,"2026-09-20":0.9449,"2026-09-21":0.9454,"2026-09-22":0.9454,"2026-09-23":0.9457,"2026-09-24":0.946,"2026-09-25":0.946,"2026-09-26":0.9463,"2026-09-27":0.9466,"2026-09-28":0.9465,"2026-09-29":0.9465,"2026-09-30":0.9467,"2026-10-01":0.9468,"2026-10-02":0.9465,"2026-10-03":0.9467,"2026-10-04":0.9465,"2026-10-05":0.9467,"2026-10-06":0.9466,"2026-10-07":0.9467,"2026-10-08":0.9471,"2026-10-09":0.9469}},"binary":{"events":154,"theta":0.0023,"theta_se":0.0062,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.8016,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.7895,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.8137,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.8304,"avg_return":61.85,"ece":0.046,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.7995,"history":{"2026-09-12":0.8026,"2026-09-13":0.7978,"2026-09-14":0.7982,"2026-09-15":0.7982,"2026-09-16":0.7983,"2026-09-17":0.7984,"2026-09-18":0.7986,"2026-09-19":0.7991,"2026-09-20":0.8004,"2026-09-21":0.8005,"2026-09-22":0.8007,"2026-09-23":0.8007,"2026-09-24":0.8007,"2026-09-25":0.8003,"2026-09-26":0.801,"2026-09-27":0.8017,"2026-09-28":0.8015,"2026-09-29":0.8015,"2026-09-30":0.8016,"2026-10-01":0.8029,"2026-10-02":0.8021,"2026-10-03":0.7998,"2026-10-04":0.8,"2026-10-05":0.8033,"2026-10-06":0.8028,"2026-10-07":0.7993,"2026-10-08":0.7995,"2026-10-09":0.7995}},"multi":{"events":63,"theta":0.0014,"theta_se":0.0029,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9746,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9689,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.9803,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.9822,"avg_return":95.32,"ece":0.0278,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9746,"history":{"2026-09-13":0.9727,"2026-09-14":0.9722,"2026-09-15":0.9709,"2026-09-16":0.9721,"2026-09-17":0.972,"2026-09-18":0.972,"2026-09-19":0.9724,"2026-09-20":0.9724,"2026-09-21":0.9736,"2026-09-22":0.9736,"2026-09-23":0.9738,"2026-09-24":0.9737,"2026-09-25":0.9738,"2026-09-26":0.974,"2026-09-27":0.9741,"2026-09-28":0.9741,"2026-09-29":0.9741,"2026-09-30":0.9743,"2026-10-01":0.9745,"2026-10-02":0.9742,"2026-10-03":0.9741,"2026-10-04":0.9741,"2026-10-05":0.9743,"2026-10-06":0.9743,"2026-10-07":0.9742,"2026-10-08":0.9748,"2026-10-09":0.9746}}}},{"forecaster":"claude-opus-5.5","searcher":null,"track":"llm","anchor":false,"provider_key":"anthropic","display_name":"Claude Opus 5.5","theta":0.0011,"theta_se":0.0029,"slices":{"all":{"events":84,"theta":0.0011,"theta_se":0.0029,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9467,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9411,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.9523,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.9514,"avg_return":97.85,"ece":0.0385,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9467,"history":{"2026-10-01":0.9515,"2026-10-02":0.9458,"2026-10-03":0.9462,"2026-10-04":0.9461,"2026-10-05":0.9467,"2026-10-06":0.9471,"2026-10-07":0.9469,"2026-10-08":0.9467,"2026-10-09":0.9467}},"binary":{"events":50,"theta":0.0044,"theta_se":0.0035,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.8036,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.7967,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.8105,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.8039,"avg_return":136.91,"ece":0.0957,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.8039,"history":{"2026-10-02":0.8028,"2026-10-03":0.8018,"2026-10-04":0.8024,"2026-10-05":0.8041,"2026-10-06":0.806,"2026-10-07":0.8041,"2026-10-08":0.8041,"2026-10-09":0.8039}},"multi":{"events":34,"theta":0.0002,"theta_se":0.0049,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9734,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9639,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.9829,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.977,"avg_return":94.2,"ece":0.0177,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9734,"history":{"2026-10-02":0.9726,"2026-10-03":0.9724,"2026-10-04":0.9724,"2026-10-05":0.9735,"2026-10-06":0.9739,"2026-10-07":0.9736,"2026-10-08":0.9734,"2026-10-09":0.9734}}}},{"forecaster":"kimi-k3","searcher":null,"track":"llm","anchor":false,"provider_key":"moonshotai","display_name":"Kimi K3","theta":0.0006,"theta_se":0.0016,"slices":{"all":{"events":923,"theta":0.0006,"theta_se":0.0016,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9463,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9431,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.9495,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.9548,"avg_return":92.86,"ece":0.0119,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9465,"history":{"2026-08-11":0.9452,"2026-08-12":0.945,"2026-08-13":0.945,"2026-08-14":0.9447,"2026-08-15":0.9446,"2026-08-16":0.9449,"2026-08-17":0.945,"2026-08-18":0.945,"2026-08-19":0.9451,"2026-08-20":0.9452,"2026-08-21":0.9451,"2026-08-22":0.9451,"2026-08-23":0.9455,"2026-08-24":0.9458,"2026-08-25":0.9456,"2026-08-26":0.9458,"2026-08-27":0.9458,"2026-08-28":0.9457,"2026-08-29":0.9455,"2026-08-30":0.9462,"2026-08-31":0.9462,"2026-09-01":0.9463,"2026-09-02":0.9463,"2026-09-03":0.9463,"2026-09-04":0.9464,"2026-09-05":0.9462,"2026-09-06":0.9459,"2026-09-07":0.9461,"2026-09-08":0.9461,"2026-09-09":0.946,"2026-09-10":0.9459,"2026-09-11":0.946,"2026-09-12":0.9458,"2026-09-13":0.9463,"2026-09-14":0.9464,"2026-09-15":0.9464,"2026-09-16":0.9464,"2026-09-17":0.9464,"2026-09-18":0.9464,"2026-09-19":0.9464,"2026-09-20":0.9462,"2026-09-21":0.9463,"2026-09-22":0.9463,"2026-09-23":0.9464,"2026-09-24":0.9467,"2026-09-25":0.9468,"2026-09-26":0.947,"2026-09-27":0.9469,"2026-09-28":0.9469,"2026-09-29":0.9469,"2026-09-30":0.9472,"2026-10-01":0.947,"2026-10-02":0.9471,"2026-10-03":0.9471,"2026-10-04":0.9469,"2026-10-05":0.9469,"2026-10-06":0.9469,"2026-10-07":0.9469,"2026-10-08":0.9465,"2026-10-09":0.9465}},"binary":{"events":576,"theta":0.0022,"theta_se":0.0023,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.8014,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.797,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.8058,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.7973,"avg_return":113.45,"ece":0.0206,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.8007,"history":{"2026-08-11":0.8009,"2026-08-12":0.7978,"2026-08-13":0.7976,"2026-08-14":0.7975,"2026-08-15":0.797,"2026-08-16":0.7989,"2026-08-17":0.7988,"2026-08-18":0.8007,"2026-08-19":0.8009,"2026-08-20":0.8009,"2026-08-21":0.7975,"2026-08-22":0.8009,"2026-08-23":0.7978,"2026-08-24":0.8017,"2026-08-25":0.8017,"2026-08-26":0.7984,"2026-08-27":0.7984,"2026-08-28":0.7996,"2026-08-29":0.7982,"2026-08-30":0.7995,"2026-08-31":0.7983,"2026-09-01":0.7985,"2026-09-02":0.7985,"2026-09-03":0.7985,"2026-09-04":0.799,"2026-09-05":0.8002,"2026-09-06":0.8021,"2026-09-07":0.7988,"2026-09-08":0.7988,"2026-09-09":0.7988,"2026-09-10":0.8021,"2026-09-11":0.8021,"2026-09-12":0.8007,"2026-09-13":0.8004,"2026-09-14":0.8003,"2026-09-15":0.8003,"2026-09-16":0.8005,"2026-09-17":0.8006,"2026-09-18":0.8006,"2026-09-19":0.8028,"2026-09-20":0.8025,"2026-09-21":0.8025,"2026-09-22":0.8025,"2026-09-23":0.8025,"2026-09-24":0.8025,"2026-09-25":0.8027,"2026-09-26":0.8028,"2026-09-27":0.8027,"2026-09-28":0.8029,"2026-09-29":0.8029,"2026-09-30":0.8029,"2026-10-01":0.8045,"2026-10-02":0.804,"2026-10-03":0.8018,"2026-10-04":0.8023,"2026-10-05":0.8029,"2026-10-06":0.804,"2026-10-07":0.8008,"2026-10-08":0.8007,"2026-10-09":0.8007}},"multi":{"events":347,"theta":0.0003,"theta_se":0.0022,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9735,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9692,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.9778,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.9764,"avg_return":86.79,"ece":0.0138,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9735,"history":{"2026-08-11":0.9733,"2026-08-12":0.9732,"2026-08-13":0.9732,"2026-08-14":0.9729,"2026-08-15":0.9729,"2026-08-16":0.9731,"2026-08-17":0.9731,"2026-08-18":0.9732,"2026-08-19":0.9733,"2026-08-20":0.9734,"2026-08-21":0.9735,"2026-08-22":0.9735,"2026-08-23":0.9737,"2026-08-24":0.9736,"2026-08-25":0.9735,"2026-08-26":0.9735,"2026-08-27":0.9735,"2026-08-28":0.9733,"2026-08-29":0.9734,"2026-08-30":0.9738,"2026-08-31":0.9738,"2026-09-01":0.9737,"2026-09-02":0.9737,"2026-09-03":0.9738,"2026-09-04":0.9738,"2026-09-05":0.9736,"2026-09-06":0.9736,"2026-09-07":0.9736,"2026-09-08":0.9736,"2026-09-09":0.9734,"2026-09-10":0.9735,"2026-09-11":0.9735,"2026-09-12":0.9735,"2026-09-13":0.9736,"2026-09-14":0.9737,"2026-09-15":0.9736,"2026-09-16":0.9736,"2026-09-17":0.9736,"2026-09-18":0.9736,"2026-09-19":0.9735,"2026-09-20":0.9735,"2026-09-21":0.9736,"2026-09-22":0.9736,"2026-09-23":0.9736,"2026-09-24":0.9738,"2026-09-25":0.9739,"2026-09-26":0.9741,"2026-09-27":0.974,"2026-09-28":0.9741,"2026-09-29":0.9741,"2026-09-30":0.9741,"2026-10-01":0.9742,"2026-10-02":0.9744,"2026-10-03":0.9744,"2026-10-04":0.9744,"2026-10-05":0.9743,"2026-10-06":0.9743,"2026-10-07":0.9741,"2026-10-08":0.9736,"2026-10-09":0.9735}}}},{"forecaster":"deepseek-v4.1-flash","searcher":null,"track":"llm","anchor":false,"provider_key":"deepseek","display_name":"DeepSeek V4.1 Flash","theta":0.0004,"theta_se":0.0038,"slices":{"all":{"events":84,"theta":0.0004,"theta_se":0.0038,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9461,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9387,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.9535,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.9507,"avg_return":114.89,"ece":0.0418,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.946,"history":{"2026-10-01":0.9476,"2026-10-02":0.9445,"2026-10-03":0.945,"2026-10-04":0.945,"2026-10-05":0.9455,"2026-10-06":0.9462,"2026-10-07":0.9462,"2026-10-08":0.946,"2026-10-09":0.946}},"binary":{"events":50,"theta":0.0024,"theta_se":0.0055,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.8016,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.7908,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.8124,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.802,"avg_return":102.5,"ece":0.1159,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.8018,"history":{"2026-10-02":0.812,"2026-10-03":0.8011,"2026-10-04":0.8046,"2026-10-05":0.8004,"2026-10-06":0.8037,"2026-10-07":0.8017,"2026-10-08":0.8024,"2026-10-09":0.8018}},"multi":{"events":34,"theta":-0.0003,"theta_se":0.0047,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9728,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9635,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.9821,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.9766,"avg_return":113.88,"ece":0.0167,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9728,"history":{"2026-10-02":0.9698,"2026-10-03":0.9712,"2026-10-04":0.9707,"2026-10-05":0.9728,"2026-10-06":0.9732,"2026-10-07":0.9729,"2026-10-08":0.9727,"2026-10-09":0.9728}}}},{"forecaster":"market-baseline","searcher":null,"track":"market","anchor":true,"provider_key":null,"display_name":null,"theta":0.0,"theta_se":0.0,"slices":{"all":{"events":3559,"theta":0.0,"theta_se":0.0,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9457,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9457,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.9457,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.9457,"avg_return":null,"ece":null,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9456,"history":{"2026-08-11":0.9446,"2026-08-12":0.9444,"2026-08-13":0.9444,"2026-08-14":0.9443,"2026-08-15":0.9441,"2026-08-16":0.9444,"2026-08-17":0.9444,"2026-08-18":0.9444,"2026-08-19":0.9443,"2026-08-20":0.9443,"2026-08-21":0.9443,"2026-08-22":0.9441,"2026-08-23":0.9445,"2026-08-24":0.9447,"2026-08-25":0.9447,"2026-08-26":0.9447,"2026-08-27":0.9448,"2026-08-28":0.9447,"2026-08-29":0.9446,"2026-08-30":0.945,"2026-08-31":0.9451,"2026-09-01":0.9452,"2026-09-02":0.9452,"2026-09-03":0.9453,"2026-09-04":0.9452,"2026-09-05":0.9451,"2026-09-06":0.9451,"2026-09-07":0.9452,"2026-09-08":0.9452,"2026-09-09":0.9452,"2026-09-10":0.9453,"2026-09-11":0.9453,"2026-09-12":0.9451,"2026-09-13":0.9459,"2026-09-14":0.946,"2026-09-15":0.946,"2026-09-16":0.946,"2026-09-17":0.946,"2026-09-18":0.946,"2026-09-19":0.9459,"2026-09-20":0.9457,"2026-09-21":0.9457,"2026-09-22":0.9457,"2026-09-23":0.9457,"2026-09-24":0.9459,"2026-09-25":0.946,"2026-09-26":0.9461,"2026-09-27":0.946,"2026-09-28":0.946,"2026-09-29":0.946,"2026-09-30":0.946,"2026-10-01":0.946,"2026-10-02":0.946,"2026-10-03":0.946,"2026-10-04":0.9459,"2026-10-05":0.9458,"2026-10-06":0.9458,"2026-10-07":0.9458,"2026-10-08":0.9457,"2026-10-09":0.9456}},"binary":{"events":2445,"theta":0.0,"theta_se":0.0,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.7992,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.7992,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.7992,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.7992,"avg_return":null,"ece":null,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.7992,"history":{"2026-08-11":0.7967,"2026-08-12":0.7966,"2026-08-13":0.7966,"2026-08-14":0.7962,"2026-08-15":0.7958,"2026-08-16":0.7955,"2026-08-17":0.7955,"2026-08-18":0.7956,"2026-08-19":0.7953,"2026-08-20":0.7953,"2026-08-21":0.7953,"2026-08-22":0.7952,"2026-08-23":0.7956,"2026-08-24":0.7957,"2026-08-25":0.7957,"2026-08-26":0.7957,"2026-08-27":0.7957,"2026-08-28":0.7957,"2026-08-29":0.7956,"2026-08-30":0.7956,"2026-08-31":0.7957,"2026-09-01":0.7959,"2026-09-02":0.7959,"2026-09-03":0.7959,"2026-09-04":0.7965,"2026-09-05":0.7967,"2026-09-06":0.7969,"2026-09-07":0.797,"2026-09-08":0.797,"2026-09-09":0.797,"2026-09-10":0.797,"2026-09-11":0.797,"2026-09-12":0.7977,"2026-09-13":0.7978,"2026-09-14":0.7977,"2026-09-15":0.7977,"2026-09-16":0.7978,"2026-09-17":0.798,"2026-09-18":0.7981,"2026-09-19":0.7998,"2026-09-20":0.7995,"2026-09-21":0.7995,"2026-09-22":0.7996,"2026-09-23":0.7996,"2026-09-24":0.7996,"2026-09-25":0.7995,"2026-09-26":0.7995,"2026-09-27":0.7994,"2026-09-28":0.7994,"2026-09-29":0.7994,"2026-09-30":0.7994,"2026-10-01":0.7995,"2026-10-02":0.7996,"2026-10-03":0.799,"2026-10-04":0.7994,"2026-10-05":0.7993,"2026-10-06":0.7993,"2026-10-07":0.7994,"2026-10-08":0.7994,"2026-10-09":0.7992}},"multi":{"events":1114,"theta":0.0,"theta_se":0.0,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9732,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9732,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.9732,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.9732,"avg_return":null,"ece":null,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9731,"history":{"2026-08-11":0.9736,"2026-08-12":0.9735,"2026-08-13":0.9735,"2026-08-14":0.9734,"2026-08-15":0.9734,"2026-08-16":0.9735,"2026-08-17":0.9735,"2026-08-18":0.9735,"2026-08-19":0.9735,"2026-08-20":0.9735,"2026-08-21":0.9735,"2026-08-22":0.9735,"2026-08-23":0.9737,"2026-08-24":0.9737,"2026-08-25":0.9737,"2026-08-26":0.9736,"2026-08-27":0.9735,"2026-08-28":0.9735,"2026-08-29":0.9734,"2026-08-30":0.9735,"2026-08-31":0.9735,"2026-09-01":0.9736,"2026-09-02":0.9736,"2026-09-03":0.9736,"2026-09-04":0.9736,"2026-09-05":0.9735,"2026-09-06":0.9735,"2026-09-07":0.9734,"2026-09-08":0.9734,"2026-09-09":0.9734,"2026-09-10":0.9734,"2026-09-11":0.9734,"2026-09-12":0.9734,"2026-09-13":0.9738,"2026-09-14":0.9739,"2026-09-15":0.9739,"2026-09-16":0.9738,"2026-09-17":0.9738,"2026-09-18":0.9738,"2026-09-19":0.9737,"2026-09-20":0.9737,"2026-09-21":0.9736,"2026-09-22":0.9736,"2026-09-23":0.9736,"2026-09-24":0.9737,"2026-09-25":0.9737,"2026-09-26":0.9738,"2026-09-27":0.9737,"2026-09-28":0.9736,"2026-09-29":0.9736,"2026-09-30":0.9735,"2026-10-01":0.9735,"2026-10-02":0.9734,"2026-10-03":0.9735,"2026-10-04":0.9735,"2026-10-05":0.9734,"2026-10-06":0.9734,"2026-10-07":0.9733,"2026-10-08":0.9733,"2026-10-09":0.9731}}}},{"forecaster":"gpt-6-astra","searcher":null,"track":"llm","anchor":false,"provider_key":"openai","display_name":"GPT-6 Astra","theta":-0.0002,"theta_se":0.0039,"slices":{"all":{"events":267,"theta":-0.0002,"theta_se":0.0039,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9455,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9379,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.9531,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.9547,"avg_return":95.13,"ece":0.0238,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9456,"history":{"2026-09-12":0.9463,"2026-09-13":0.9461,"2026-09-14":0.946,"2026-09-15":0.9451,"2026-09-16":0.945,"2026-09-17":0.945,"2026-09-18":0.945,"2026-09-19":0.9452,"2026-09-20":0.9453,"2026-09-21":0.9458,"2026-09-22":0.9457,"2026-09-23":0.946,"2026-09-24":0.9464,"2026-09-25":0.9464,"2026-09-26":0.947,"2026-09-27":0.9471,"2026-09-28":0.9473,"2026-09-29":0.9473,"2026-09-30":0.9474,"2026-10-01":0.9463,"2026-10-02":0.9458,"2026-10-03":0.9459,"2026-10-04":0.9459,"2026-10-05":0.9461,"2026-10-06":0.9461,"2026-10-07":0.9461,"2026-10-08":0.9455,"2026-10-09":0.9456}},"binary":{"events":179,"theta":0.0007,"theta_se":0.0055,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.7999,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.7891,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.8107,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.8244,"avg_return":91.11,"ece":0.0423,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.7982,"history":{"2026-09-12":0.8065,"2026-09-13":0.8016,"2026-09-14":0.8018,"2026-09-15":0.8008,"2026-09-16":0.8002,"2026-09-17":0.8,"2026-09-18":0.8003,"2026-09-19":0.8014,"2026-09-20":0.8024,"2026-09-21":0.8025,"2026-09-22":0.8027,"2026-09-23":0.8027,"2026-09-24":0.8027,"2026-09-25":0.803,"2026-09-26":0.8045,"2026-09-27":0.804,"2026-09-28":0.8038,"2026-09-29":0.8039,"2026-09-30":0.8039,"2026-10-01":0.8025,"2026-10-02":0.8021,"2026-10-03":0.7996,"2026-10-04":0.7998,"2026-10-05":0.801,"2026-10-06":0.803,"2026-10-07":0.7979,"2026-10-08":0.7981,"2026-10-09":0.7982}},"multi":{"events":88,"theta":-0.0002,"theta_se":0.0036,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.973,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9659,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.9801,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.9795,"avg_return":101.87,"ece":0.0257,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.973,"history":{"2026-09-13":0.9725,"2026-09-14":0.9721,"2026-09-15":0.9709,"2026-09-16":0.9717,"2026-09-17":0.9716,"2026-09-18":0.9716,"2026-09-19":0.9725,"2026-09-20":0.9725,"2026-09-21":0.9736,"2026-09-22":0.9736,"2026-09-23":0.9737,"2026-09-24":0.9738,"2026-09-25":0.9738,"2026-09-26":0.9741,"2026-09-27":0.9742,"2026-09-28":0.9748,"2026-09-29":0.9748,"2026-09-30":0.9748,"2026-10-01":0.9749,"2026-10-02":0.974,"2026-10-03":0.9739,"2026-10-04":0.9739,"2026-10-05":0.974,"2026-10-06":0.9741,"2026-10-07":0.9738,"2026-10-08":0.9729,"2026-10-09":0.973}}}},{"forecaster":"gpt-6-luna","searcher":null,"track":"llm","anchor":false,"provider_key":"openai","display_name":"GPT-6 Luna","theta":-0.0005,"theta_se":0.0054,"slices":{"all":{"events":84,"theta":-0.0005,"theta_se":0.0054,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9451,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9345,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.9557,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.9498,"avg_return":112.16,"ece":0.0446,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9453,"history":{"2026-10-01":0.946,"2026-10-02":0.9424,"2026-10-03":0.9438,"2026-10-04":0.9443,"2026-10-05":0.945,"2026-10-06":0.9451,"2026-10-07":0.9454,"2026-10-08":0.9451,"2026-10-09":0.9453}},"binary":{"events":50,"theta":-0.0001,"theta_se":0.0084,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.7992,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.7827,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.8157,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.8008,"avg_return":103.69,"ece":0.1153,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.7976,"history":{"2026-10-02":0.782,"2026-10-03":0.789,"2026-10-04":0.7945,"2026-10-05":0.7967,"2026-10-06":0.8006,"2026-10-07":0.7961,"2026-10-08":0.7964,"2026-10-09":0.7976}},"multi":{"events":34,"theta":-0.001,"theta_se":0.0053,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9722,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9619,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.9825,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.9757,"avg_return":110.31,"ece":0.0176,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9721,"history":{"2026-10-02":0.9718,"2026-10-03":0.9726,"2026-10-04":0.9719,"2026-10-05":0.9724,"2026-10-06":0.9724,"2026-10-07":0.9723,"2026-10-08":0.9721,"2026-10-09":0.9721}}}},{"forecaster":"foresight-v3","searcher":null,"track":"llm","anchor":false,"provider_key":"lightningrodlabs","display_name":"Foresight V3","theta":-0.001,"theta_se":0.002,"slices":{"all":{"events":1215,"theta":-0.001,"theta_se":0.002,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9447,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9409,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.9485,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.9537,"avg_return":93.01,"ece":0.0264,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9444,"history":{"2026-08-11":0.9435,"2026-08-12":0.943,"2026-08-13":0.9433,"2026-08-14":0.9426,"2026-08-15":0.9428,"2026-08-16":0.9431,"2026-08-17":0.9436,"2026-08-18":0.9434,"2026-08-19":0.9433,"2026-08-20":0.9434,"2026-08-21":0.9437,"2026-08-22":0.9431,"2026-08-23":0.9436,"2026-08-24":0.9441,"2026-08-25":0.9437,"2026-08-26":0.9441,"2026-08-27":0.9439,"2026-08-28":0.9441,"2026-08-29":0.9439,"2026-08-30":0.9444,"2026-08-31":0.9445,"2026-09-01":0.9446,"2026-09-02":0.9447,"2026-09-03":0.9446,"2026-09-04":0.9444,"2026-09-05":0.9442,"2026-09-06":0.9436,"2026-09-07":0.9437,"2026-09-08":0.9437,"2026-09-09":0.9436,"2026-09-10":0.9436,"2026-09-11":0.9435,"2026-09-12":0.9438,"2026-09-13":0.9441,"2026-09-14":0.9444,"2026-09-15":0.9443,"2026-09-16":0.9442,"2026-09-17":0.9441,"2026-09-18":0.9443,"2026-09-19":0.9441,"2026-09-20":0.944,"2026-09-21":0.9439,"2026-09-22":0.9439,"2026-09-23":0.944,"2026-09-24":0.9442,"2026-09-25":0.9445,"2026-09-26":0.9446,"2026-09-27":0.9446,"2026-09-28":0.9447,"2026-09-29":0.9447,"2026-09-30":0.9447,"2026-10-01":0.945,"2026-10-02":0.945,"2026-10-03":0.9452,"2026-10-04":0.9449,"2026-10-05":0.9449,"2026-10-06":0.9446,"2026-10-07":0.945,"2026-10-08":0.9446,"2026-10-09":0.9444}},"binary":{"events":780,"theta":-0.0005,"theta_se":0.0028,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.7987,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.7933,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.8041,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.7779,"avg_return":110.15,"ece":0.0366,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.798,"history":{"2026-08-11":0.8031,"2026-08-12":0.7945,"2026-08-13":0.7944,"2026-08-14":0.7942,"2026-08-15":0.7941,"2026-08-16":0.7939,"2026-08-17":0.7937,"2026-08-18":0.8025,"2026-08-19":0.803,"2026-08-20":0.8033,"2026-08-21":0.7946,"2026-08-22":0.803,"2026-08-23":0.7947,"2026-08-24":0.8035,"2026-08-25":0.8035,"2026-08-26":0.7951,"2026-08-27":0.7951,"2026-08-28":0.7999,"2026-08-29":0.795,"2026-08-30":0.7995,"2026-08-31":0.7952,"2026-09-01":0.7954,"2026-09-02":0.7954,"2026-09-03":0.7954,"2026-09-04":0.796,"2026-09-05":0.796,"2026-09-06":0.8036,"2026-09-07":0.7959,"2026-09-08":0.7959,"2026-09-09":0.7959,"2026-09-10":0.8035,"2026-09-11":0.8035,"2026-09-12":0.7962,"2026-09-13":0.8004,"2026-09-14":0.8002,"2026-09-15":0.8002,"2026-09-16":0.7964,"2026-09-17":0.8006,"2026-09-18":0.8005,"2026-09-19":0.8023,"2026-09-20":0.8021,"2026-09-21":0.8021,"2026-09-22":0.8019,"2026-09-23":0.8019,"2026-09-24":0.8019,"2026-09-25":0.8024,"2026-09-26":0.8023,"2026-09-27":0.8022,"2026-09-28":0.7986,"2026-09-29":0.7986,"2026-09-30":0.7985,"2026-10-01":0.8046,"2026-10-02":0.8028,"2026-10-03":0.801,"2026-10-04":0.8016,"2026-10-05":0.7992,"2026-10-06":0.8039,"2026-10-07":0.7982,"2026-10-08":0.7976,"2026-10-09":0.798}},"multi":{"events":435,"theta":-0.002,"theta_se":0.0023,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9712,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9667,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.9757,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.9752,"avg_return":90.6,"ece":0.02,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9711,"history":{"2026-08-11":0.9713,"2026-08-12":0.9712,"2026-08-13":0.9712,"2026-08-14":0.971,"2026-08-15":0.9712,"2026-08-16":0.9714,"2026-08-17":0.9714,"2026-08-18":0.9715,"2026-08-19":0.9714,"2026-08-20":0.9712,"2026-08-21":0.9714,"2026-08-22":0.9714,"2026-08-23":0.9715,"2026-08-24":0.9714,"2026-08-25":0.9714,"2026-08-26":0.9715,"2026-08-27":0.9716,"2026-08-28":0.9713,"2026-08-29":0.9713,"2026-08-30":0.9717,"2026-08-31":0.9719,"2026-09-01":0.9718,"2026-09-02":0.9717,"2026-09-03":0.9719,"2026-09-04":0.9714,"2026-09-05":0.9713,"2026-09-06":0.9713,"2026-09-07":0.971,"2026-09-08":0.971,"2026-09-09":0.9708,"2026-09-10":0.9709,"2026-09-11":0.9709,"2026-09-12":0.9709,"2026-09-13":0.9711,"2026-09-14":0.9712,"2026-09-15":0.971,"2026-09-16":0.9709,"2026-09-17":0.9709,"2026-09-18":0.9709,"2026-09-19":0.9708,"2026-09-20":0.9708,"2026-09-21":0.9708,"2026-09-22":0.9707,"2026-09-23":0.9708,"2026-09-24":0.971,"2026-09-25":0.9712,"2026-09-26":0.9713,"2026-09-27":0.9713,"2026-09-28":0.9714,"2026-09-29":0.9714,"2026-09-30":0.9714,"2026-10-01":0.9715,"2026-10-02":0.9715,"2026-10-03":0.9716,"2026-10-04":0.9716,"2026-10-05":0.9716,"2026-10-06":0.9717,"2026-10-07":0.9715,"2026-10-08":0.9713,"2026-10-09":0.9711}}}},{"forecaster":"gpt-6.1-sol","searcher":null,"track":"llm","anchor":false,"provider_key":"openai","display_name":"GPT-6.1 Sol","theta":-0.0011,"theta_se":0.0074,"slices":{"all":{"events":71,"theta":-0.0011,"theta_se":0.0074,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9445,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9299,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.9591,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.9504,"avg_return":119.79,"ece":0.0564,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9447,"history":{"2026-10-02":0.9299,"2026-10-03":0.9398,"2026-10-04":0.942,"2026-10-05":0.9435,"2026-10-06":0.9446,"2026-10-07":0.9445,"2026-10-08":0.9442,"2026-10-09":0.9447}},"binary":{"events":43,"theta":-0.0015,"theta_se":0.0117,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.7977,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.7748,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.8206,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.8119,"avg_return":92.93,"ece":0.1234,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.7958,"history":{"2026-10-03":0.7857,"2026-10-04":0.7912,"2026-10-05":0.7932,"2026-10-06":0.799,"2026-10-07":0.7939,"2026-10-08":0.7944,"2026-10-09":0.7958}},"multi":{"events":28,"theta":-0.0018,"theta_se":0.006,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9713,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9596,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.983,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.975,"avg_return":119.66,"ece":0.0207,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9712,"history":{"2026-10-03":0.9682,"2026-10-04":0.9686,"2026-10-05":0.9704,"2026-10-06":0.9713,"2026-10-07":0.971,"2026-10-08":0.9708,"2026-10-09":0.9712}}}},{"forecaster":"hy3","searcher":null,"track":"llm","anchor":false,"provider_key":"tencent","display_name":"Hunyuan Hy3","theta":-0.0014,"theta_se":0.0042,"slices":{"all":{"events":288,"theta":-0.0014,"theta_se":0.0042,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9443,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.936,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.9526,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.9547,"avg_return":92.26,"ece":0.0319,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9442,"history":{"2026-08-14":0.9466,"2026-08-15":0.9447,"2026-08-16":0.9457,"2026-08-17":0.9456,"2026-08-18":0.9458,"2026-08-19":0.9447,"2026-08-20":0.9446,"2026-08-21":0.9448,"2026-08-22":0.9448,"2026-08-23":0.9445,"2026-08-24":0.9442,"2026-08-25":0.9441,"2026-08-26":0.9442,"2026-08-27":0.944,"2026-08-28":0.9439,"2026-08-29":0.9438,"2026-08-30":0.9444,"2026-08-31":0.9431,"2026-09-01":0.9432,"2026-09-02":0.9433,"2026-09-03":0.9434,"2026-09-04":0.9422,"2026-09-05":0.9413,"2026-09-06":0.941,"2026-09-07":0.9418,"2026-09-08":0.9418,"2026-09-09":0.9416,"2026-09-10":0.9417,"2026-09-11":0.9416,"2026-09-12":0.9416,"2026-09-13":0.9425,"2026-09-14":0.9427,"2026-09-15":0.9428,"2026-09-16":0.9431,"2026-09-17":0.9431,"2026-09-18":0.9433,"2026-09-19":0.9431,"2026-09-20":0.9431,"2026-09-21":0.9431,"2026-09-22":0.9431,"2026-09-23":0.9434,"2026-09-24":0.9436,"2026-09-25":0.9438,"2026-09-26":0.944,"2026-09-27":0.9441,"2026-09-28":0.9444,"2026-09-29":0.9445,"2026-09-30":0.9445,"2026-10-01":0.9446,"2026-10-02":0.9447,"2026-10-03":0.9448,"2026-10-04":0.9446,"2026-10-05":0.9445,"2026-10-06":0.9444,"2026-10-07":0.9446,"2026-10-08":0.9443,"2026-10-09":0.9442}},"binary":{"events":178,"theta":0.0037,"theta_se":0.0061,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.8029,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.791,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.8148,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.8082,"avg_return":120.15,"ece":0.0656,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.8,"history":{"2026-08-15":0.7998,"2026-08-16":0.8039,"2026-08-17":0.8035,"2026-08-18":0.8048,"2026-08-19":0.8052,"2026-08-20":0.8053,"2026-08-21":0.8017,"2026-08-22":0.8048,"2026-08-23":0.7985,"2026-08-24":0.8037,"2026-08-25":0.8037,"2026-08-26":0.8001,"2026-08-27":0.8001,"2026-08-28":0.8008,"2026-08-29":0.7991,"2026-08-30":0.8002,"2026-08-31":0.7987,"2026-09-01":0.7993,"2026-09-02":0.7993,"2026-09-03":0.7993,"2026-09-04":0.7999,"2026-09-05":0.8002,"2026-09-06":0.8031,"2026-09-07":0.7991,"2026-09-08":0.7991,"2026-09-09":0.7991,"2026-09-10":0.8032,"2026-09-11":0.803,"2026-09-12":0.8009,"2026-09-13":0.8014,"2026-09-14":0.801,"2026-09-15":0.8011,"2026-09-16":0.8009,"2026-09-17":0.8011,"2026-09-18":0.8015,"2026-09-19":0.8032,"2026-09-20":0.8032,"2026-09-21":0.8033,"2026-09-22":0.8037,"2026-09-23":0.8037,"2026-09-24":0.8037,"2026-09-25":0.8036,"2026-09-26":0.8035,"2026-09-27":0.8035,"2026-09-28":0.8034,"2026-09-29":0.8034,"2026-09-30":0.8034,"2026-10-01":0.8047,"2026-10-02":0.8044,"2026-10-03":0.8017,"2026-10-04":0.802,"2026-10-05":0.8047,"2026-10-06":0.8044,"2026-10-07":0.8001,"2026-10-08":0.8001,"2026-10-09":0.8}},"multi":{"events":110,"theta":-0.002,"theta_se":0.005,"predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9712,"predicted_one_minus_brier_lo":0.9614,"predicted_one_minus_brier_hi":0.981,"measured_one_minus_brier":0.9747,"avg_return":86.06,"ece":0.0285,"prev_predicted_one_minus_brier":0.9711,"history":{"2026-08-16":0.9747,"2026-08-17":0.9747,"2026-08-18":0.9747,"2026-08-19":0.9714,"2026-08-20":0.9714,"2026-08-21":0.9715,"2026-08-22":0.972,"2026-08-23":0.972,"2026-08-24":0.9712,"2026-08-25":0.9712,"2026-08-26":0.9711,"2026-08-27":0.971,"2026-08-28":0.9713,"2026-08-29":0.9714,"2026-08-30":0.9719,"2026-08-31":0.9701,"2026-09-01":0.9701,"2026-09-02":0.9701,"2026-09-03":0.9701,"2026-09-04":0.9687,"2026-09-05":0.9678,"2026-09-06":0.9679,"2026-09-07":0.9688,"2026-09-08":0.9688,"2026-09-09":0.9686,"2026-09-10":0.9687,"2026-09-11":0.9687,"2026-09-12":0.9687,"2026-09-13":0.9689,"2026-09-14":0.969,"2026-09-15":0.969,"2026-09-16":0.9697,"2026-09-17":0.9698,"2026-09-18":0.9698,"2026-09-19":0.9696,"2026-09-20":0.9696,"2026-09-21":0.9697,"2026-09-22":0.9697,"2026-09-23":0.97,"2026-09-24":0.9701,"2026-09-25":0.9703,"2026-09-26":0.9705,"2026-09-27":0.9708,"2026-09-28":0.9714,"2026-09-29":0.9714,"2026-09-30":0.9714,"2026-10-01":0.9714,"2026-10-02":0.9716,"2026-10-03":0.9717,"2026-10-04":0.9717,"2026-10-05":0.9717,"2026-10-06":0.9717,"2026-10-07":0.9714,"2026-10-08":0.9713,"2026-10-09":0.9711}}}}]}